Samsung Set for Best Quarterly Profit Since 2018 as DRAM Prices Soar: Analysts Predict Record 2026 Earnings
- Why Are Samsung's Profits Skyrocketing?
- How Does This Compare to Samsung's Recent Struggles?
- What's Driving the Memory Chip Shortage?
- Are There Clouds on Samsung's Horizon?
- What Does This Mean for the Tech Industry?
- Frequently Asked Questions
In a dramatic turnaround, Samsung Electronics is poised to announce its highest quarterly profits since 2018, fueled by surging DRAM prices and AI-driven chip demand. Analysts project operating profits could smash through the 20 trillion won ($14.6 billion) barrier this quarter - a 160% year-over-year surge that marks Samsung's triumphant return after a difficult 2025. The memory chip shortage creating this windfall presents both opportunities and challenges as Samsung battles SK Hynix for dominance in Nvidia's AI chip supply chain.
Why Are Samsung's Profits Skyrocketing?
The numbers tell a stunning story: DDR5 DRAM prices exploded by 314% year-over-year in Q4 2025 according to TrendForce data, while conventional DRAM prices are projected to rise 55-60% this quarter. "Samsung's production capacity is heavily concentrated in conventional DRAM, so they're positioned to benefit disproportionately from this price surge," explains Avril Wu, senior analyst at TrendForce. The BTCC research team notes this perfect storm has analysts forecasting 16.9 trillion won ($11.7 billion) in Q4 operating profits - potentially eclipsing 2018's record 17.6 trillion won performance.
How Does This Compare to Samsung's Recent Struggles?
Just over a year ago, CEO Jun Young-hyun was publicly apologizing for dismal financial results as Samsung lost ground to SK Hynix in supplying advanced chips to AI leader Nvidia. The turnaround has been remarkable - Samsung shares surged 125% in 2025, their best annual performance in 26 years. "Samsung has returned," clients reportedly told executives after seeing their next-generation HBM4 memory chips. While shares dipped 2.1% Tuesday amid broader market declines, the long-term trajectory appears strong.
What's Driving the Memory Chip Shortage?
The crisis stems from chipmakers shifting production to AI processors, creating shortages in standard memory chips even as demand for both types grows exponentially. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang confirmed Monday that their next-gen chips using HBM4 memory (which Samsung hopes to supply) are already in mass production for the Vera Rubin platform launching late this year. Analysts now predict Samsung's 2026 operating profits could more than double, potentially exceeding 100 trillion won.
Are There Clouds on Samsung's Horizon?
Not everyone is bullish. BNK Investment's Lee Min-hee cautions that higher chip prices may hurt computer and smartphone markets, while some worry about slowing demand from debt-laden AI data centers. The chip shortage also squeezes Samsung's smartphone division - its second-largest revenue source - as rising component costs erode margins. "No company is immune to this situation," mobile division head TM Roh told Reuters, acknowledging they're struggling to mitigate the damage.
What Does This Mean for the Tech Industry?
This supply-demand imbalance creates clear winners (memory producers) and losers (device makers). With conventional DRAM prices still climbing, Samsung appears well-positioned to capitalize - though they'll need to execute perfectly to regain ground lost to SK Hynix in advanced chips. As the AI boom reshapes semiconductor markets, 2026 could become Samsung's most profitable year ever... if they can navigate these turbulent waters.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much are Samsung's profits expected to grow?
Analysts forecast Q4 2025 operating profits of 16.9 trillion won ($11.7 billion), up 160% from 6.49 trillion won in the same period last year. Some predict they could exceed 20 trillion won.
Why are DRAM prices increasing so dramatically?
Chipmakers have prioritized AI processor production, creating shortages in standard memory chips. DDR5 DRAM prices ROSE 314% year-over-year in Q4 2025 according to TrendForce.
How is Samsung's stock performing?
Shares surged 125% in 2025 - their best annual gain in 26 years - though dipped 2.1% on January 5, 2026 amid profit-taking after recent highs.
