Russian Oil Deliveries to China Drop 7.6% in 2025 Despite July Rebound – Here’s Why
- How Much Russian Oil Is China Actually Importing?
- What’s Driving the Decline in Russian Oil Imports?
- How Does Natural Gas Trade Compare?
- What Does This Mean for BRICS Energy Trade?
- Frequently Asked Questions
China’s crude oil imports from Russia fell sharply in the first seven months of 2025, with volumes dropping 7.6% YoY to 57.71 million tons and values plunging 21.3% to $29.48 billion. However, July saw a surprising 4.2% monthly rebound in shipments. Meanwhile, Russian pipeline gas exports to China surged 21.3% in value, while LNG shipments declined. This analysis unpacks the complex energy dynamics between these BRICS partners amid shifting global trade policies.
How Much Russian Oil Is China Actually Importing?
According to China’s General Administration of Customs, Russian crude oil deliveries totaled 57.71 million tons from January-July 2025, worth $29.48 billion. That’s equivalent to about 2.85 million barrels per day – still making Russia China’s top oil supplier, but representing a significant 7.6% volume drop from 2024 levels. The financial impact was even steeper, with the import bill shrinking by over one-fifth (21.3%) due to price fluctuations and possible discounts.
July brought a temporary reprieve though – shipments jumped to 8.7 million tons (4.2% higher than June), valued at $4.31 billion (9.2% monthly increase). This aligns with Bloomberg’s report of China nearly doubling Urals crude imports in August compared to the 2025 average. "The July rebound suggests Chinese refiners are taking advantage of discounted Russian barrels," noted a BTCC market analyst, "but whether this marks a trend reversal remains uncertain."
What’s Driving the Decline in Russian Oil Imports?
Several factors contributed to the first-half slump:
- Indian Diversion: U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration forced India to reduce Russian oil purchases, creating temporary oversupply
- Payment Challenges: Sanctions-related banking restrictions continue complicating transactions
- Strategic Stockpiling: China may have front-loaded imports in late 2024 ahead of anticipated sanctions
- Economic Slowdown: China’s refining margins have been under pressure from weaker domestic demand
Interestingly, China avoided similar U.S. tariffs after TRUMP cited "progress in Ukraine negotiations" with Putin. This geopolitical nuance helps explain why July shipments rebounded – Chinese buyers likely gained confidence in continued access to Russian crude.
How Does Natural Gas Trade Compare?
The energy trade picture differs markedly for gas:
| Commodity | Jan-Jul 2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Pipeline Gas (value) | $5.69 billion | +21.3% |
| LNG (volume) | 3.38 million tons | -18.8% |
| LNG (value) | $1.98 billion | -18.8% |
Russia remains China’s top pipeline gas supplier but ranks fourth for LNG behind Australia, Qatar and Malaysia. The 2024 annual data shows stronger growth – Russian pipeline gas exports surged 25% to $8.03 billion, while LNG shipments grew 3.3% to 8.3 million tons.
What Does This Mean for BRICS Energy Trade?
The mixed energy trade data reveals several strategic realities:
- Oil remains the centerpiece of Russia-China trade, accounting for over 80% of energy exports
- Pipeline gas infrastructure investments are paying dividends with consistent growth
- LNG trade appears more vulnerable to global market fluctuations
- Both nations are successfully navigating Western sanctions through alternative financial mechanisms
As the BTCC team observes, "The July rebound in oil shipments suggests both countries are adapting to the new trade realities. The Power of Siberia pipeline and proposed new routes will likely deepen gas cooperation, while oil trade may become more volatile."
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Russian oil exports to China decrease in 2025?
The 7.6% drop in Russian oil exports to China during January-July 2025 resulted from multiple factors including U.S. pressure on Indian buyers, payment complications from sanctions, China's strategic inventory management, and softer domestic demand. The value decline outpaced volume due to price adjustments.
Is Russia still China's largest oil supplier?
Yes, despite the 2025 decline, Russia maintained its position as China's top crude oil supplier. The 57.71 million tons imported in the first seven months still surpasses shipments from Saudi Arabia and other major exporters, demonstrating the resilience of this energy partnership.
How has the U.S. influenced Russia-China oil trade?
The Trump administration's tariffs on Indian imports of Russian oil indirectly affected China by creating temporary oversupply. However, China avoided direct sanctions after diplomatic progress in Ukraine talks, allowing its July imports to rebound as buyers regained confidence.
