Strategy’s Stock Hits a New Low in 2026 – And It Could Get Worse
- Why Has Strategy’s Stock Collapsed in 2026?
- The MSCI Delisting Threat: How Real Is It?
- Is Strategy’s Bitcoin Hoard a Lifeline or a Liability?
- What’s Next for MSTR Investors?
- FAQ: Your Strategy Stock Questions Answered
Strategy, the leading Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) for Bitcoin, is facing severe headwinds in early 2026. Despite holding a staggering 672,497 BTC (worth over $60 billion), its stock (MSTR) has plummeted 65% from its July 2025 peak. A potential delisting from the MSCI USA index looms, with Polymarket odds suggesting a 75% chance of removal by April. This article dives into the factors behind the crash, from Bitcoin’s slump to aggressive share dilution, and explores whether the worst is yet to come.
Why Has Strategy’s Stock Collapsed in 2026?
Strategy’s MSTR shares have nosedived to $192, a level unseen since its 200% rally in September 2024. The drop mirrors Bitcoin’s decline from its $126,000 all-time high, but internal issues—like a shrinking mNAV premium and share dilution—are amplifying the pain. Analysts at TradingView note that MSTR’s correlation with BTC remains extreme, but "the market is pricing in risks beyond crypto volatility," including potential index exclusion.
The MSCI Delisting Threat: How Real Is It?
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) plans to remove companies with >50% crypto holdings from its USA index. Despite CEO Michael Saylor’s protests, Polymarket traders peg the odds at 75% for removal by April. If executed, forced selling by index-tracking funds could worsen MSTR’s slump. "This isn’t just about Bitcoin’s price—it’s about institutional access drying up," warns a BTCC market strategist.
Is Strategy’s Bitcoin Hoard a Lifeline or a Liability?
Paradoxically, Strategy’s 672,497 BTC ($60B+) treasury hasn’t shielded its stock. The firm even started accumulating USD reserves as a "crypto winter" hedge. CoinMarketCap data shows its mNAV (market-adjusted net asset value) premium evaporated in Q4 2025—a red flag for investors who once paid a 200% premium for BTC exposure via MSTR. Now, they’re questioning whether Saylor’s "all-in" bitcoin strategy can survive a prolonged bear market.
What’s Next for MSTR Investors?
With Bitcoin stagnant and delisting risks rising, MSTR faces a make-or-break Q1. Historical data from 2024 suggests a rebound is possible if BTC recovers, but if the MSCI axe falls, Technical analysts at BTCC highlight $150 as critical support. "The real question," says one trader, "is whether this is capitulation or just the beginning of a deeper crisis for crypto-correlated stocks."
FAQ: Your Strategy Stock Questions Answered
Why did MSTR stock drop so sharply?
The decline stems from Bitcoin’s price slump, MSCI delisting fears, and Strategy’s shrinking mNAV premium. The stock is highly Leveraged to BTC’s performance.
How likely is MSTR’s removal from the MSCI USA index?
Polymarket’s prediction markets currently assign a 75% probability to delisting by April 2026.
Does Strategy still buy Bitcoin aggressively?
While it set purchase records in 2025, the company has recently diversified into USD reserves, signaling caution.
