Bitcoin LTHs Flip from Distribution to Accumulation for First Time Since July: Recovery Next?

Bitcoin's long-term holders just made a major pivot—and it could signal the next leg up.

For the first time since July, the cohort that historically buys low and sells high has shifted from distributing coins to accumulating them. That's not just a minor blip; it's a fundamental change in market structure. These aren't day traders chasing pumps. These are the players with skin in the game, the ones who've weathered previous cycles. When they start stacking sats again, the market pays attention.

The Big Flip

The data doesn't lie. After months of net selling, the LTH supply curve has inflected upward. This metric tracks wallets holding coins for more than 155 days—the investors with the strongest hands. Their collective behavior is one of the cleanest indicators of long-term conviction. Distribution phases often cap rallies and precede downturns. Accumulation phases, however, lay the foundation for the next bull run. It's the market's way of whispering, 'The smart money is buying.'

What This Means for Price

History shows these flips aren't random. They tend to occur after significant price corrections, when weaker hands have been shaken out and valuation resets. It's a process of silent reloading. While short-term volatility will always grab headlines—another celebrity shilling a memecoin, anyone?—this is the slow, steady work happening beneath the surface. It reduces sell-side pressure and establishes a firmer floor. Think of it as the market taking a deep breath before the next sprint.

A Cynical Note from Finance

Of course, on Wall Street, this would be hailed as a 'contrarian indicator' and promptly over-analyzed by a team of analysts who've never used a non-custodial wallet. They'd charge you a 2% management fee for the insight, too.

The bottom line? The most patient capital in Bitcoin is voting with its wallet. Again. It doesn't guarantee an immediate moon shot, but it does change the gravitational pull. The recovery narrative just got a major credibility boost.

Bitcoin long-term holders have flipped from distribution to accumulation for the first time since July, raising questions about a possible price recovery. Notably, after Bitcoin reached the $126,000 peak in early October, it slipped into a period of sharp price declines that have pushed the price below the $90,000 mark.

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