XRP at the Brink: Why the $1.95 Support Line is a Make-or-Break Moment as Binance Reserves Plunge to Lows

XRP's price floor is cracking. The $1.95 support level isn't just another number on a chart—it's the last line of defense before a potential freefall. And the timing couldn't be more precarious.

Reserves on the world's largest exchange are drying up. Binance's XRP holdings just hit their lowest point this year. That's not a coincidence; it's a capital flight. When liquidity evaporates from a major venue, the market's structural integrity weakens. It leaves the asset more vulnerable to volatility, less capable of absorbing large sell orders, and frankly, looking a bit thin.

What's Behind the Exodus?

Speculation is rampant. Are large holders, the so-called 'whales,' moving coins to cold storage ahead of a storm? Or is this a strategic pullback by the exchange itself in response to regulatory pressure? The data doesn't lie—the coffers are emptier. This creates a dangerous feedback loop: dwindling exchange reserves spook retail investors, leading to more selling, which further tests that critical $1.95 support. Break that, and the next stop isn't pretty.

The Bigger Picture: A Test of Faith

This is more than a technical squiggle. It's a stress test for XRP's underlying conviction. The community has weathered legal battles and FUD for years, but price action is the ultimate truth-teller. Holding $1.95 reaffirms the bull narrative; losing it invites a chorus of 'I told you so' from the traditional finance crowd who still think crypto is just digital Beanie Babies. A cynical take? Perhaps. But in finance, the market's vote is the only one that counts, and right now, it's casting a ballot of no confidence in XRP's immediate liquidity.

The coming days are critical. Watch the order books around $1.95. Watch for a volume spike. This isn't just about a token's price—it's about whether the market believes the asset has a floor, or if it's just another speculative project finding its natural, gravity-induced level.

Weekly Chart Hints at Short-Term Pressure

On the weekly chart, XRP continues to face pressure. The token is currently below the downtrend line and also below the 8-week and 21-week EMAs, indicating weak market performance. Currently, it is testing support at the zone of $1.95, which corresponds to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the 89-week EMA. The zone has been holding firm since the start of the year.

If the token closes below $1.95 for the week, traders WOULD prepare for a further decline towards $1.60, nearing the 0.618 Fibonacci level. If $1.95 is breached and it closes in the green, buyers would step in, taking the token towards $2.30 and potentially reaching $2.70.

XRP Exchange Reserves Hit Multi-Month Low

In spite of the current price pressures, the supply dynamic of XRP appears to be potentially positive. The exchange holdings of Binance’s XRP reserves are down to 2.66 billion, which is the lowest since July 2024. The reduction of XRP holdings on exchanges means that the long-term holders of XRP are taking the coins off the exchanges and into self-custody.

Less available in the exchanges, coupled with robust support at $1.80, may indicate that there is a potential supply shock. As the pressure from sales continues to ease, it is likely that XRP will remain in or around this region and FORM a foundation for potential upside.