Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Shattered: How $88K Unleashes the $619K Supercycle
Forget everything you thought you knew about Bitcoin's rhythm. The old playbook just burned.
The Halving Hangover That Never Came
Traditional analysts spent years mapping peaks and troughs on a tidy four-year calendar. Then Bitcoin blew past $88,000 and left that chart in the dust. This isn't a cycle delay—it's a structural break. The mechanisms that once dictated post-halving consolidation have been bypassed by a tidal wave of institutional capital, a development as surprising as a banker turning down a bonus.
Decoding the Supercycle Signal
So what does $88,000 actually mean? It's not just another number. It's a key technical and psychological level that, once decisively broken, resets the entire valuation model. The move suggests a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's character: from a speculative tech asset to a macro-economic hedge with its own gravity. The old resistance becomes the new foundation.
The Road to Six Figures... and Beyond
The path from here isn't linear, but the destination is being rewritten. The $619,000 figure isn't plucked from thin air—it's the logical endpoint of a new, steeper adoption curve. It represents a world where Bitcoin's market cap begins to rival traditional safe-haven assets, a scenario that would have been dismissed as fantasy just a few market cycles ago. Every dip is now being bought by entities that measure time in decades, not days.
The four-year cycle is dead. What's replacing it is a supercycle driven by a simple, relentless truth: digital scarcity is winning. The only thing more volatile than the price might be the egos of the analysts who failed to see it coming.
Comparing Bitcoin Cycle Models
David compares the fixed 4-year model with the log-periodic power law (LPPL) model, which considers Bitcoin as a living system. The comparison shows that the AIC value of the LPPL model is -7,510.5, and it is -6,386.1 in the 4-year model.
In statistical analysis, values over 10 provide strong support, and in this case, it is over 1,100, so it basically eliminates the old cycle model.
Source: X
Beyond the figures, the LPPL model shows the natural frequency of Bitcoin in log-time, indicating that the cycles prolong as the size of the network expands.
The cycles in the early years were rapid and strong, but in the later years, the cycles are slower and more energy-related. This is what is known as ‘time dilation,’ and this is why the ‘old cycles no longer apply.
From Fear of a Crash to the Next Supercycle
According to the 4-year model, there will be an 80% crash in 2026, yet statistics reveal that Bitcoin’s movements have cooled down, and large crashes will be fewer. Since the damping rate has been reduced to -0.40, the market is entering into a calm development phase.
Investors are withdrawing their funds around $88K to avoid the fake bear market, although the LPPL model foresees a breakout in 2026, which may take the price to $219K by the year-end. Looking forward in time, the peak of Bitcoin will increase to $619K by August of 2029.
This particular shift represents the transition from speculative cycles to the fact that Bitcoin is becoming an independent global asset class. Its large size also means that selling at this stage is not the smartest move.
