XRP Repeats Rare Cycle Pattern That Delivered 200% to 800% Rallies
History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. For XRP, the verse is getting louder.
A technical formation last seen before its most explosive moves is back on the charts. This isn't just another squiggle on a screen—it's the same blueprint that preceded gains of 200% to 800% in prior cycles. The pattern suggests the digital asset is coiling for its next major leg.
The Setup
The structure involves a specific confluence of momentum and consolidation phases, mirroring the prelude to its historic runs. It's a signal that has flashed only a handful of times in XRP's volatile lifetime. Each previous instance was a launchpad, not a false start.
Why This Time Could Be Different
Market structure has evolved. Regulatory clouds that once dampened sentiment are showing signs of breaking, while institutional plumbing for digital assets is more robust than ever. The macro backdrop—characterized by a relentless search for non-correlated yield—adds fuel. Traders chasing the next big narrative are running out of places to look.
The Math of Momentum
Applying the pattern's historical performance to current levels paints a stark picture. A repeat on the lower end of its historical range implies a tripling in value. At the upper bound, it points toward a near tenfold return. Of course, past performance is the favorite bedtime story of every finance bro—until the market wakes up and changes the ending.
The pattern is clear, the precedent is set, and the clock is ticking. XRP is whispering a very old, very profitable secret. The only question left is who's listening.
50-Week SMA Remains the Line That Matters
Analyzing the weekly chart for XRP/USD, the reason why the 50-week SMA is of such significance can be understood.
Since the 50-week SMA has always assisted in identifying the trend, the breaking backabove the 50-week SMA after a prolonged base saw the price MOVE up rapidly within a span of ten weeks in 2017. There was a marked shift from the accumulation phase to the expansion phase.
Source: X
The pattern in the 2021 cycle looked the same but scaled down. XRP again rallied above the 50-week MA and held it for a brief period before rising another 70% in seven weeks. The pattern is simply scaled down. Reclaim, hold, then grow.
This is because the current cycle is following a similar pattern on a larger scale. XRP was moving around its 50-week moving average, but then was able to cross it, causing it to surge by over 800% in 10 to 12 weeks.
As expected, there was a pullback, but it is currently close to a positively moving 50-week moving average.
Gold, Silver, and XRP Share a Familiar Base Pattern
STEPH also compared the current situation for XRP with the situation for Gold and silver before. Both were trading sideways for several years, and this reduced market interest.
Both had a final drop and consolidated into a sideways base. The major rallies did not happen during the panic dump but after establishing the base.
Source: X
Silver established an increasing low from late 2022 to early 2023 and thereafter entered into a strong rise from 2025 to 2026. Gold had a similar action after its extended consolidation and clean breakout.
The current base for XRP is similar to that mentioned above because it took years to FORM a large range from its latest peak, and indicates that it is yet to break out.
