Bitcoin Whale Sell-Off Halves in December, NVT Signal Hints 2026 Bull Run

Whale selling pressure just got cut in half—and a key on-chain metric is flashing its most bullish signal since the last cycle's peak.

The Big Money Exodus Slows

December's data shows a dramatic slowdown in large-holder distribution. The selling pressure from Bitcoin's wealthiest addresses has dropped by 50% compared to previous months. It's a classic sign of accumulation—when the smart money stops dumping, they're usually getting ready for the next move up.

NVT Screams 'Undervalued'

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, often called Bitcoin's P/E ratio, has plunged. This signal last hit these levels in late 2020, just before the historic run to $69,000. The metric suggests the current network utility is massively outpacing its market cap—a textbook setup for a re-rating.

Timeline: The 2026 Thesis

Historical patterns point to late 2026 for the next cycle peak. The four-year halving rhythm, combined with this early accumulation phase, aligns perfectly with that target. Forget the day-traders and their leveraged nonsense—this is the slow, institutional grind that builds real bull markets.

Wall Street's Favorite Narrative—Just Late

Traditional finance will eventually spin this as a 'new discovery,' conveniently ignoring the on-chain data that's been screaming for months. They'll show up fashionably late to the party, as always, with glossy reports and hefty fees.

The bottom line? The infrastructure for the next major rally is being built right now, block by block, while most of the world is still looking the other way.

Source: X

Later cycles display smaller percentage gains, reflecting normal late-stage bull market dynamics, but the higher-low structure remains intact.

These horizontal support zones act as accumulation ranges, giving buyers room to step in after corrections, maintaining a bullish market framework.

Bitcoin Whale Activity Slows, Sell Pressure Drops

According to analyst AndrewBTC, major Bitcoin deposits into the largest Bitcoin trading platform, Binance, also saw a major decline in the last month of the year.

Inflows declined from $7.88 billion to $3.86 billion. The decline in major bitcoin deposits indicates a decline in the selling pressure exerted by whales.

The Binance Exchange Whale Ratio is going down and holding a lower level compared to its recent highs now that the Bitcoin price is at $87,000. That means that large traders, also known as whales, are making a reduced net contribution to exchange inflows compared to small traders.

Source: X

Volatility still happens every now and then due to inflows, such as 466 million USD from 100-10k BTC wallets, but it looks like there’s reduced sell pressure.

Market Structure Suggests Measured Expansion

Bitcoin price remains bullish. Despite strong bouts of selling, there are higher lows and a return to regions of demand where people continue to buy. The lack of strong sellers and regions of undervaluation defined by NVT Scans argues against a top and instead is indicative of a late-cycle correction.

In simple terms, Bitcoin is most probably in a mid-term trend reset. Over-optimism and leverage are being cleaned out to allow for another positive MOVE upward.

Small amounts of inflow money may fluctuate in the short term, but overall, there is potential for movement upward since history repeats itself.