Peter Schiff’s Dire 2026 MSTR Warning: MSCI Decision Could Trigger Worse Returns

Gold bug Peter Schiff just fired a shot across the bow of Bitcoin believers—and he's aiming at their favorite proxy stock.

The Warning Shot

Schiff, a perennial crypto skeptic, is predicting tougher times ahead for MicroStrategy. His latest forecast hinges on a potential move by index giant MSCI. The implication? The structural support for MSTR's premium valuation could be in jeopardy.

The Index Effect Unraveling

Inclusion in major indices like those from MSCI often creates a virtuous cycle of forced buying from passive funds. Schiff's warning suggests that cycle might reverse or stagnate. If MSCI re-evaluates its stance, the steady institutional demand that helped buoy the stock could dry up. It's a classic case of what gets you into the club might not keep you there.

A Proxy Under Pressure

MicroStrategy has long traded as a leveraged bet on Bitcoin's price, often commanding a premium to its underlying BTC holdings. Analysts watch this premium as a gauge of market sentiment. Schiff's prediction implies that premium is at risk of compression, independent of Bitcoin's own performance. The stock could underperform the very asset it's supposed to track.

The 2026 Horizon

Schiff's specific 2026 timeline adds a layer of tactical dread. It's far enough out to be plausible, yet close enough to disrupt medium-term investment theses. It forces holders to ask: is the current strategy sustainable for another two years under increased scrutiny?

Finance's favorite game: using yesterday's index inclusion to justify tomorrow's inflated price, then acting surprised when the rules change.

The bottom line? One of crypto's loudest critics sees a specific, structural vulnerability forming for its most prominent corporate champion. Whether you agree with him or not, he's identified a pressure point that won't be ignored.

MSTR’s 2025 Collapse Deepens Concerns for 2026

MSTR ended last year at nearly half of the high of 2025. The stock has fallen approximately 50% above prices of more than $400. It declined continuously in the second half of the year. The slide went on, and Bitcoin fell below 100,000 in November. This connection between MSTR and Bitcoin is the core of his warning, Schiff said.

He contended that the share can give poor returns in 2026. He added that bitcoin might plunge further this year. He said that the decline would put further pressure on the valuation of MSTR. Schiff even repeated his previous analogy of the company to large index constituents. He reported that MSTR would have been among the 6th worst performers to include Strategy in the S&P 500.

Strategy isn’t in the S&P 500. But if it were, its 47.5% decline in 2025 WOULD make it the 6th worst-performing stock in the index. @Saylor claims the best thing a company can do is buy Bitcoin. Well, that’s basically all $MSTR did, and the strategy destroyed shareholder value.

Schiff further claimed that the purchases of Bitcoin by Strategy have harmed shareholder value. He indicated protracted declines in the stock. He cited that the strategy has subjected investors to unnecessary volatility. His remarks brought about a controversy over digital-asset treasury policy. The criticism was released at an opportune time for the Saylor company.

MSCI Review Could Trigger Major Index Outflows

MSCI will make the decision on January 15. The opinion under consideration is whether digital-asset treasury companies should be considered investment funds. The consultation phase on the proposal came to an end yesterday. 

In case MSCI decides in favor of reclassification, the modification might result in removals in its global indices. One of the companies under scrutiny is the Strategy.

Analysts have highlighted the potential impact of this move. JPMorgan had estimated outflows of up to $2.8 billion at Strategy in case MSCI sets it out of its indices. The bank responded that index-tracking funds might have to minimize exposure. These outflows would impose pressure on the stock performance of MSTR. The decision is now under scrutiny by the market.

The crypto traders are interested in the result as well. Polymarket predicts a 75% likelihood of Strategy’s removal from the MSCI index by March 31. The expectation implies an increase in uncertainty. The combination of the MSCI ruling and criticism by Schiff has led to more focus on MSTR at the beginning of the year.