AMD Stock Surges After Trump Greenlights Nvidia’s China Chip Sales — Will AMD Be Next?

AMD shares rocket higher as geopolitical winds shift in the semiconductor sector.

Trump's surprise approval for Nvidia to resume certain AI chip sales to China sent shockwaves through the markets—and AMD investors are betting they're next in line for a regulatory boost. The move signals a potential thaw in the tense U.S.-China tech trade war, at least for this critical industry.

Why AMD Could Follow

It's not just wishful thinking. AMD, like Nvidia, sits at the pinnacle of high-performance computing. Its chips are vital for artificial intelligence and data centers—areas where Chinese firms are desperate to catch up. If the administration is willing to let Nvidia back in, logic suggests AMD won't be far behind. The market is pricing in that expectation, plain and simple.

The Ripple Effect

This isn't just about one company's revenue. A reopened Chinese market for advanced U.S. semiconductors could recalibrate global supply chains and growth projections overnight. For AMD, it represents a massive, previously walled-off opportunity suddenly cracking open. Analysts are already scrambling to update their models—though, as always on Wall Street, the 'strong buy' ratings came out roughly five minutes after the stock started moving.

What's the Real Play?

Beyond the immediate pop, the situation highlights a brutal truth in modern tech investing: your portfolio's fate can hinge on a single presidential tweet or policy shift. Companies build for years, but politics can unlock—or obliterate—value in an instant. For now, the bulls are running with the narrative that a door has been opened, and AMD has a foot ready to step through. Whether that door stays open or gets slammed shut again is the multi-billion dollar question keeping traders up at night.

TLDR

• AMD stock jumped 2% after-hours following Trump administration’s approval of Nvidia H200 chip sales to China with a 25% revenue-share requirement
• The policy applies to approved customers in China and could extend to AMD, Intel, and other U.S. chipmakers according to Trump’s Truth Social post
• AMD’s AI chip sales to China were heavily restricted last year, blocking access to one of the world’s largest markets
• Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy rating on AMD with 28 Buy and 10 Hold recommendations and a price target suggesting 28.75% upside
• Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly responded positively to the chip sales proposal, which requires the U.S. government to receive 25% of revenue

AMD shares climbed roughly 2% in after-hours trading Monday after President Trump announced approval for Nvidia to sell H200 AI chips to China. The move caught investor attention because Trump specifically mentioned AMD would receive the same treatment.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., AMD

The policy requires chipmakers to pay 25% of China sales revenue to the U.S. government. TRUMP posted on Truth Social that the Commerce Department is finalizing details and “the same approach will apply to AMD, Intel, and other GREAT American Companies.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping responded positively to the proposal, according to Trump’s statement. The policy aims to support American jobs, strengthen U.S. manufacturing, and benefit taxpayers.

Export Restrictions Hit AMD Hard Last Year

U.S. export rules implemented last year severely limited AMD’s ability to sell AI chips in China. The restrictions cut off access to a massive market just as global demand for the company’s MI300 chips was accelerating.

Chinese tech companies represent some of the world’s biggest buyers of advanced processors. AMD has been unable to tap this demand while competitors in other regions secured orders.

The company signed an earlier agreement in August to share 15% of China chip revenue with the U.S. government. That deal never materialized into actual sales due to ongoing restrictions.

Competition for Chinese AI Orders

The new policy puts Nvidia in line to restart China shipments first. But major Chinese tech firms typically want multiple suppliers when building AI systems.

AMD’s Instinct chips could become a practical alternative if the company receives export approval. Chinese buyers often prefer having backup options rather than relying on one vendor.

The 25% revenue share will eat into profit margins. But investors appear more interested in gaining access to new customers than worrying about the fee structure.

MI300 Momentum Builds Globally

AMD has seen strong adoption of its MI300 accelerators outside China. The company strengthened partnerships with major cloud providers throughout 2024 and into early 2025.

Opening China sales WOULD add another revenue stream to an already improving data center business. Even limited shipments could provide meaningful growth given the size of the market.

The Commerce Department has not yet issued formal approval for AMD chip exports to China. Trump’s post suggests that decision is coming soon, which explains Monday’s after-hours price movement.