Gemini (GEMI) Stock: Crypto Exchange Secures CFTC License for Prediction Markets - Regulatory Breakthrough

Gemini just grabbed the regulatory golden ticket. The crypto exchange secured a CFTC license to operate prediction markets—a move that could reshape how traders bet on everything from elections to weather.

Regulators Finally Play Ball

For years, prediction markets existed in regulatory limbo. The CFTC's green light changes the game. Gemini now gets to legally offer contracts on future events, merging crypto's speculative energy with traditional event-trading frameworks.

Why This License Matters

Prediction markets aren't new—think Iowa Electronic Markets for elections. But bringing them onto a regulated crypto platform? That's fresh territory. It creates a compliant on-ramp for institutional money looking to hedge or speculate on real-world outcomes using digital assets.

The GEMI Stock Angle

Publicly-traded crypto exchanges live and die by regulatory wins. This license isn't just another product launch—it's a moat-builder. It signals to Wall Street that Gemini can navigate Washington's maze, something that still makes traditional finance types break out in cold sweats.

What Actually Changes

Users won't notice much—at first. The infrastructure stays the same. But behind the scenes, compliance teams are popping champagne. Every trade now happens under CFTC oversight, with all the reporting and consumer protections that entails. It's boring paperwork that makes exciting markets possible.

The Cynical Take

Let's be real—Wall Street loves finding new ways to lose money "safely." Now they can do it with crypto-flavored derivatives on whether it'll rain in Dubai next Thursday. Progress, apparently.

Gemini's move proves crypto's endgame isn't replacing traditional finance—it's infiltrating it. One regulated product at a time.

TLDR

• Gemini received a Designated Contract Market license from the CFTC to launch prediction markets in the US through its affiliate Gemini Titan
• Gemini stock jumped 13.7% in after-hours trading to $12.92 following the announcement
• The exchange applied for the DCM license in March 2020, completing a 5-year approval process
• Gemini plans to expand beyond event contracts into crypto futures, options and perpetual contracts
• The move is part of Gemini’s strategy to build a “super app” offering multiple crypto products

Gemini Space Station Inc stock rallied in after-hours trading Wednesday after the crypto exchange announced approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to launch prediction markets in the United States.

Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Common Stock, GEMI

The CFTC granted Gemini’s affiliate, Gemini Titan, a Designated Contract Market license. This allows the platform to offer binary event contracts where users can bet on future outcomes.

Shares in Gemini ROSE 13.7% to $12.92 in extended trading. The stock had closed the regular session down 0.7%.

GEMINI WINS CFTC APPROVAL FOR PREDICTION MARKET

Gemini has received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate a Designated Contract Market. This allows it to offer prediction markets to US customers. pic.twitter.com/QBAdBqKM4S

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) December 11, 2025

The approval comes after a lengthy regulatory process. Gemini first submitted its DCM license application on March 10, 2020.

“This marks the culmination of a 5-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini,” said CEO Tyler Winklevoss.

The license represents a potential turning point for the company’s stock performance. GEMI has fallen 64.5% since its public debut on September 12 as the crypto market struggled to maintain upward momentum.

Gemini said US users will be able to trade event contracts on its web platform “starting shortly.” The exchange also plans to expand its derivatives offerings to include crypto futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Racing to Build a Super App

The prediction markets launch fits into Gemini’s broader strategy. President Cameron Winklevoss outlined plans last month to create a “super app” combining multiple crypto products.

The company reported its first quarterly results as a public company last month. Those results showed losses related to the costs of going public.

“Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets,” Cameron Winklevoss said in the statement.

Gemini enters a space that has exploded in popularity this year. Major platforms Polymarket and Kalshi both recorded their highest monthly trading volumes in November.

Kalshi closed a $1 billion funding round at an $11 billion valuation earlier this month. The company’s success has attracted attention from other crypto exchanges.

Trust Wallet launched prediction markets earlier in December. Coinbase appears to be developing a prediction markets platform backed by Kalshi.

Regulatory Climate Shifts Under New CFTC Leadership

The CFTC’s stance on prediction markets has changed under Acting Chair Caroline Pham. The agency took a more restrictive approach in previous years.

Regulators banned Polymarket from operating in the US. The CFTC only cautiously approved new event contracts for Kalshi.

Kalshi won a legal battle against the CFTC over political betting markets. That victory opened the door for expansion into areas like sports betting.

“Acting Chairman Pham understands this vision and its importance,” Cameron Winklevoss said. “Unlike her predecessor, Acting Chairman Pham has positioned the CFTC as a pro-business, pro-innovation regulator.”

The regulatory environment may become more favorable under President Donald Trump’s second term. Trump’s social media company plans to launch a Truth Social prediction market with Crypto.com.

The Winklevoss twins previously expressed concerns about Trump’s initial CFTC pick, Brian Quintenz. They cited potential conflicts of interest related to his venture capital position and board seat at Kalshi.

Gemini now competes directly with established prediction market platforms. Distribution partner Robinhood has accounted for more than 50% of Kalshi’s market volumes at times.

State regulators have launched enforcement actions against some CFTC-regulated platforms. Critics compare event contracts to unlicensed sports betting.