Cathie Wood Declares Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Shattered by Institutional Onslaught

Bitcoin's old rhythms are dying. The predictable four-year boom-and-bust pattern that defined its first decade? Ark Invest's Cathie Wood says institutional capital is tearing it apart.

The New Market Mechanics

Forget the retail-driven manias of cycles past. The influx of pension funds, sovereign wealth vehicles, and corporate treasuries isn't just adding volume—it's rewriting the rulebook. This capital behaves differently. It's strategic, long-term, and less prone to panic-selling over a trending hashtag. The result? Price discovery is becoming less about halving hype and more about macro asset allocation.

A Structural Shift, Not a Blip

This isn't a temporary deviation. The foundational infrastructure—spot ETFs, regulated custodians, clearer frameworks—has permanently lowered the barrier for big money. These players operate on timelines that laugh at four-year charts. Their sustained buying pressure could dampen the legendary volatility, muting the extreme lows while potentially capping the manic highs. Some purists might mourn the loss of crypto's wild soul.

The Final Word

The era of gaming Bitcoin based on a simple calendar is over. The asset is maturing under the weight of serious capital, for better or worse. It turns out nothing disrupts a disruptive asset's cycle quite like a few hundred billion dollars from the very institutions it was meant to bypass. The ultimate irony for a decentralized revolution? Its next phase is being bankrolled by Wall Street.

TLDR

• Cathie Wood argues Bitcoin’s traditional four-year halving cycle no longer defines the asset’s behavior due to institutional adoption
• Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased with crashes now smaller than the historic 75-90% drops seen in earlier years
• The most recent halving occurred April 20, 2024, cutting mining rewards to 3.125 BTC
• Standard Chartered lowered its 2025 Bitcoin price target from $200,000 to $100,000, citing reduced halving influence
• Bitcoin now trades more as a risk-on asset alongside equities rather than as a hedge like gold

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may no longer control the cryptocurrency’s long-term price movements. She made the comments during a Fox Business interview on Tuesday.

JUST IN:Cathie Wood says the 4-year cycle is dead and Bitcoin will rally higher from here

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Wood explained that institutional investors are changing how Bitcoin behaves in the market. The sharp price crashes of 75% to 90% that occurred in Bitcoin’s early years are becoming less common.

“The volatility’s going down,” Wood said. She added that institutions “are going to prevent much more of a decline.”

Wood suggested the market may have already seen its recent low point a few weeks ago. Her view contradicts over a decade of established market patterns.

Bitcoin’s cycle has historically followed halving events. These are block reward reductions that happen approximately every four years.

Institutional Money Changes Market Dynamics

The most recent halving took place on April 20, 2024. It reduced the mining reward to 3.125 BTC per block.

In the past, halvings triggered supply squeezes and strong price rallies. However, Wood believes the market has shifted.

Bitcoin now trades more like a risk-on asset. It moves with equities and real estate rather than serving as a protective hedge.

“Now, Gold is more of a risk-off asset,” Wood noted. Investors use gold to protect against geopolitical shocks.

ARK Invest has continued buying crypto exposure. The firm recently purchased more shares of Coinbase, Circle, and its own ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF.

Wood’s comments join a larger industry discussion about Bitcoin’s cycle. Analysts at major institutions say Bitcoin no longer responds to halvings the same way.

Standard Chartered released a report this week stating that ETF buying has reduced the halving’s influence. Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick wrote that prices peaking 18 months after each halving is “no longer valid.”

LATEST:Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research has cut his 2025 year-end Bitcoin price outlook to $100,000 from $200,000, though still expecting BTC to hit $500,000 by 2030. pic.twitter.com/SYatWM7PQV

— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) December 10, 2025

The bank lowered its 2025 bitcoin price target from $200,000 to $100,000. The change reflects the new market structure.

Debate Splits Crypto Analysts

Social media debates about the cycle intensified since late July. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju both said institutional inflows erased the traditional cycle.

“The cycle is dead,” Ju wrote on social media. For years, Bitcoin followed a clear pattern of accumulation, rally, peak, and multi-year downturn.

After hitting $122,000 in July, analysts say Bitcoin’s behavior looks different. The movement appears slower and steadier than previous cycles.

Sentora executive Patrick Heusser pointed to the Bitcoin Power Law model. This model views price growth as part of a long-term curve influenced by time.

Halvings still matter, Heusser said, but only as interruptions within a broader trend. “Daily supply reduced by only 450 BTC,” he noted.

He called this marginal compared to Bitcoin’s market value and the billions flowing into spot ETFs. Institutional accumulation from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and regulated products is reshaping the market.

These buyers rarely exit positions quickly. This locks up supply and smooths out volatility.

Some firms disagree with the cycle-breaking theory. Glassnode published data in August showing the current cycle’s structure mirrors earlier ones.

Despite institutional involvement, Glassnode argued Bitcoin’s timing still aligns with past multi-year peaks. Analysts expect crashes may be shallower now, closer to 30% to 50% instead of DEEP drawdowns.

Rallies may also stretch over longer periods. Strategies built around precise halving timing may no longer work with the same accuracy.

Macro analyst Lyn Alden said Bitcoin’s current market lacks the euphoria needed for a major collapse. Broader economic forces now dictate the asset’s movement.

Alden expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 by 2026. The path there will be uneven, she warned.