Bitcoin’s Hashrate Surge Set to Mirror Moore’s Law, Claims Top Analyst

Forget the price charts—the real action's in the silicon. Bitcoin's computational backbone is gearing up for a historic growth sprint, one that could echo the most famous prediction in tech history.

The Silicon Symphony

Industry insiders are drawing a direct line between the relentless march of semiconductor progress and the future of Bitcoin mining. The logic is brutally simple: as chips get faster, smaller, and more efficient, the network's total processing power—its hashrate—gets a turbo boost. It's a self-reinforcing cycle of innovation and investment, with miners constantly chasing the next-generation rig to stay profitable.

Network Security on Steroids

This isn't just about bigger numbers. A hashrate climbing on a Moore's Law trajectory fundamentally reshapes the security calculus. Attacking the network becomes exponentially more expensive and technically daunting. Each leap in processing power acts like another reinforced concrete layer around the digital fortress—a deterrent priced in terahashes, not just dollars.

The Green Elephant in the Room

Of course, this power surge comes with a massive asterisk: energy consumption. The narrative is pivoting from pure consumption to efficiency gains per hash. The race is on to do more with less, turning megawatts into market dominance. It's a high-stakes engineering challenge that makes traditional finance's spreadsheet optimization look quaint.

The Bottom Line

If the prediction holds, we're not just watching a metric grow—we're witnessing the physical manifestation of Bitcoin's economic incentives. It's a real-time experiment where market forces, hardware innovation, and network security collide. While Wall Street analysts debate P/E ratios, the crypto world measures progress in exahashes and joules. One offers opinions; the other delivers immutable proof of work. The chip stack doesn't lie.

TLDR

• Bob Burnett believes that Bitcoin hashrate will increase gradually and align with Moore’s Law.
• Dr. Jeff Ross predicts a sharp rise in Bitcoin hashrate driven by tax benefits starting in 2026.
• The 2026 U.S. tax code allows miners to fully depreciate infrastructure costs in the year of purchase.
• Burnett argues that energy access is a bigger constraint than capital or hardware availability.
• Grid connection delays in regions like Texas are expected to hinder rapid mining expansion.

Bitcoin’s hashrate may not surge drastically in the coming years, according to Barefoot Mining CEO Bob Burnett, who expects network growth to align with computing hardware improvements, as analysts offer differing projections on future expansion driven by tax policy and infrastructure capacity.

Ross Predicts Bitcoin Hashrate Surge in 2026

Dr. Jeff Ross, founder of Vailshire Capital Management, expects Bitcoin hashrate to grow rapidly in 2026 due to tax incentives. He pointed to the U.S. tax code reinstating 100% bonus depreciation as the primary reason behind this forecast.

This provision lets miners fully write off infrastructure costs in the year of purchase instead of over several years. Ross believes this will strongly encourage miners to upgrade equipment and expand operations starting in January 2026.

There is not enough incremental energy available for hash rate to skyrocket. The 100% bonus depreciation is nice and was utilized in H2 2025 already. Hash rate increases over the foreseeable future is more likely to just follow Moore's law.

— Bob Burnett (@boomer_btc) January 2, 2026

He stated,

“If you’re a bitcoin miner and you’re going to buy a crazy amount of ASICs, you’ll wait until 2026.”

According to him, this allows for an immediate tax write-off, making massive investment more appealing and financially efficient.

Ross further added,

“Some Bitcoin miners will be paying close to zero taxes for 2026 and 2027.”

He also believes they may continue rolling forward deductions into 2028, using tax rules to manage taxable income.

This setup, he argues, will result in what he describes as hardware over-investment as companies attempt to shield their profits. With ASICs available and tax benefits in place, miners are expected to expand rapidly.

Ross emphasized that many will rush to maximize benefits under this rule, building new facilities and scaling fast. He sees this as the key factor behind a rapid jump in Bitcoin hashrate across the mining sector.

The Reality Case

Bob Burnett remains skeptical about Ross’s forecast and believes physical limitations will hinder exponential growth. He argues that energy availability, not capital or hardware, will define hashrate expansion.

“There is not enough incremental energy available for hash rate to skyrocket,” Burnett stated in his recent analysis. He believes miners face long delays in accessing power infrastructure despite available funding.

In areas like Texas, interconnection delays are now measured in years, Burnett said. He explained that new mining equipment is useless without grid access or powered transformers.

Miners may have capital and equipment ready, but without power, they cannot activate new machines. Burnett highlighted this issue as a serious constraint on growth expectations.

He also pointed out that scaling infrastructure is not instantaneous, even if miners rush purchases in 2026. Burnett said machines without electricity remain “expensive paperweights.”

The Moore’s Law Prediction

Burnett expects the Bitcoin hashrate to follow Moore’s Law over the coming years, not surge sharply. Moore’s Law refers to the steady, predictable doubling of computing power every two years.

He sees this trend as a more realistic model for projecting hashrate growth under current conditions. Rather than exponential increases, Burnett projects steady gains aligned with chip efficiency.

He said, “Hash rate increases over the foreseeable future are more likely to just follow Moore’s Law.” Burnett maintains that this outcome fits better with hardware trends and infrastructure challenges.

Burnett’s outlook suggests that even with policy incentives, growth will be tempered by physical constraints. The mining sector may pursue rapid expansion, but energy availability will limit deployment.