Strategy Inc Braces for Q4 Loss as Bitcoin Portfolio Value Plummets

Strategy Inc is staring down a fourth-quarter loss—and its Bitcoin stash is to blame.

When the Crypto Tide Goes Out

The firm's quarterly numbers are getting hammered by a downturn in its digital asset holdings. No complex derivatives or exotic financial engineering here—just the brutal, simple math of a declining market. The value of their Bitcoin position has taken a dive, dragging the whole balance sheet into the red.

The Volatility Tax

This isn't a story of operational failure. Revenue streams might be humming along just fine. Instead, it's a classic case of the 'volatility tax' that every corporate treasury dabbling in crypto eventually faces. One quarter you're a visionary; the next, you're explaining paper losses to skeptical analysts. It's the corporate equivalent of checking your portfolio after a market dip—a deeply relatable, if painful, experience.

Portfolio Pain, Long-Term Gain?

The immediate financial hit is undeniable. But for crypto-native firms, these paper losses are often just a cost of doing business—a temporary markdown on an asset they never intended to sell this quarter anyway. The real question isn't about this quarter's earnings call; it's whether this volatility shakes their long-term conviction. Most won't flinch. They'll hold, citing the historical precedent of rebounds and the foundational belief in Bitcoin's value proposition.

Another finance department learns the hard way that accounting rules weren't built for assets that can swing 20% before lunch. Welcome to the big leagues.

TLDR

• Strategy Inc holds $60B in Bitcoin, which fell 24% in Q4, triggering large unrealized losses.
• The company’s shares dropped 48% in 2025 as investor concerns about sustainability increased.
• Strategy Inc’s enterprise value nears its Bitcoin holdings for the first time in over two years.
• Saylor’s personal wealth fell 40% in 2025 to $3.8B amid crypto market downturn.

Strategy Inc, the software firm turned Bitcoin-focused treasury vehicle, is expected to post a multibillion-dollar loss for the fourth quarter of 2025. This outcome follows a 24% fall in Bitcoin’s value during the same period, severely reducing the market value of the company’s $60 billion Bitcoin stockpile.

LATEST:Strategy shares have declined for six consecutive months for the first time since the company adopted bitcoin as a treasury asset in August 2020, with MSTR falling 49% over the past year. pic.twitter.com/aq8ccICOF6

— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) January 2, 2026

The anticipated loss contrasts sharply with a $2.8 billion profit recorded in the previous quarter. The change comes after the company adopted a new accounting rule in early 2025. This rule requires crypto holdings to be reported at market value, which means unrealized gains and losses now appear directly on financial statements.

Investor Confidence Declines as Share Price Falls

Throughout 2025, Strategy Inc’s common shares fell 48%, raising concerns among investors. These concerns include the sustainability of the firm’s model, as the company generates little income from its original software business and none from Bitcoin holdings.

There are increasing fears that Strategy Inc may need to sell part of its Bitcoin assets to cover upcoming costs, such as interest and dividend payments. To address these worries, the company raised additional cash reserves on December 1 by selling common stock.

As of early January 2026, Strategy Inc’s enterprise value is around $61 billion. This figure is nearly equal to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, narrowing the premium investors once paid for exposure to its crypto strategy.

Q4 Guidance and Bitcoin’s Year-End Price

At the beginning of December, the company updated its full-year guidance. It projected a wide operating income range from a $7 billion loss to a $9.5 billion gain. These projections were based on an assumed Bitcoin price of $85,000 to $110,000 by year-end. Bitcoin ended the year at $87,648, making a result near the lower end of that range more likely.

“There was this one-time pop, but that is a different story in this quarter,” said Aaron Jacob, associate professor at Brigham Young University and senior adviser at Taxbit. Jacob pointed to the accounting changes and Bitcoin’s Q4 performance as key factors behind the expected loss.

Saylor’s Wealth Drops as Crypto Prices Fall

Michael Saylor, co-founder and chairman of Strategy Inc, began acquiring Bitcoin in 2020 as a hedge against inflation. Since then, the company transformed into a Leveraged bet on the cryptocurrency.

This transformation led other companies to follow a similar approach. However, many of these companies, including BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc., also saw their stock prices fall during the crypto downturn.

Saylor’s personal fortune declined about 40% in 2025, falling to $3.8 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. This decrease reflects both the drop in Strategy Inc’s stock and the overall decline in Bitcoin prices.

Enterprise Value and Market Sentiment

The narrowing gap between Strategy Inc’s enterprise value and its Bitcoin holdings marks a key moment. For over two years, the company maintained a premium market valuation above the value of its crypto assets. That premium supported Saylor’s argument that Bitcoin accumulation WOULD benefit shareholders.

With the premium almost gone, investors may become more cautious. The company’s market cap, debt, and token holdings are now closely aligned, placing the mNAV ratio just above 1. This development suggests that investor confidence in the model has weakened.

On the first trading day of 2026, Strategy Inc shares ROSE 5.2% to about $160. Bitcoin also rose 2.6% to $90,549, though still below its late 2024 highs.