XRP Price Surge: Exchange Balances Plummet to Multi-Year Lows as Rally Accelerates

XRP's price climbs while exchange reserves hit their lowest point in years—a classic supply squeeze in motion.

Scarcity Fuels Momentum

When digital assets flee centralized exchanges, it's not just a transfer—it's a statement. Investors are pulling XRP into private wallets, signaling a shift from trading fodder to long-term holding. This measurable drop in readily available supply often lights a fuse under the price.

The Bullish Case for Holding

Reduced exchange balances typically mean selling pressure is easing. Fewer coins up for grabs on order books can turn modest buy pressure into significant price moves. It's basic economics, even if the crypto markets sometimes forget what 'basic' means.

A Market Primed for Volatility

This setup creates a tinderbox. Any surge in demand meets a thinner, less liquid market on exchanges. The result? Potential for sharper, faster price appreciation. Of course, the same mechanics work in reverse—but the current narrative is all about the climb.

Remember, in traditional finance, they'd call this 'inventory drawdown' and host a webinar about it. In crypto, we just watch the charts and hope the music doesn't stop.

TLDR

• XRP broke above $2.12 resistance with trading volume 47.6% higher than the seven-day average
• U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs recorded $13.59 million in new inflows this week
• Exchange balances have dropped to multi-year lows, creating potential supply tightness
• Technical patterns show similarities to XRP’s 2017 cycle before its historical rally
• Analysts project base case price targets of $24-$30 over the next 6-18 months with 60-65% probability

XRP climbed past $2.12 on January 5, 2026, breaking through a resistance level that had blocked previous rally attempts. The MOVE came with trading volume 47.6% above the seven-day average.

The price increase pushed XRP’s market cap to approximately $121.7 billion. Trading activity showed sustained participation rather than a brief spike.

U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs brought in $13.59 million in new inflows earlier this week. The inflow pattern has remained steady rather than driven by single news events.

Exchange balances for XRP have fallen to multi-year lows. This decline in available supply on exchanges creates conditions that can amplify price movements when buying pressure increases.

UPDATE$XRP exchange balances are at an 8-year low.
Coins are leaving exchanges, not rushing in.

Smart money doesn’t panic. It prepares. pic.twitter.com/vnsx27s7H1

— John Squire(@TheCryptoSquire) January 2, 2026

After the initial push above $2.12, XRP entered a consolidation range between $2.128 and $2.152. The $2.128 level has held as short-term support through multiple tests.

The price is now holding above the former resistance zone. This structure differs from failed breakouts where price quickly falls back below the previous ceiling.

Technical Patterns Echo 2017 Cycle

XRP Ledger transaction counts have climbed back toward 1 million daily transactions. This uptick in network activity accompanies the price movement.

Analyst Steph noted that XRP’s current price action mirrors its 2017 cycle structure. That earlier period featured a long consolidation followed by a corrective falling wedge pattern before a large rally began.

 $XRP ’s current price action is strongly resembling what we saw in 2017.

Left chart: XRP in 2017.
Right chart: XRP in 2026 (now).

In both periods, XRP went through a long consolidation, followed by a sharp corrective move that formed a falling wedge.

In 2017, that… pic.twitter.com/OsRydKy0kH

— STEPH IS crypto (@Steph_iscrypto) January 4, 2026

In 2017, XRP compressed within a narrow price range for months before breaking out. Once the breakout occurred, momentum accelerated quickly.

The current chart structure appears to show similar compression characteristics. The token has emerged from a corresponding consolidation area.

Price Projections Based on Historical Analysis

EGRAG Crypto presented an inverse chart analysis showing XRP’s cyclical behavior. Previous breakpoints on inverse charts preceded substantial growth phases rather than declines.

#XRP – Inverted Chart Says The “Crash”…..

When you flip the #XRP chart upside-down, something powerful shows up:

Every time price “breaks support”… It actually marks the beginning of a massive expansion.

History so far:
First break → “7,000% crash” = +7,000% pump… pic.twitter.com/N1dUfM3imk

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) January 4, 2026

Past cycles produced dramatic results using this model. The first occurrence led to a 7,000% increase while the second produced a 1,200% rise.

Based on this framework, the base case projection puts XRP at $24-$30 over a 6-18 month timeframe. This scenario carries a 60-65% probability according to the analysis.

Current Market Structure

The next resistance area sits around $2.15-$2.16. A move through that zone typically brings $2.20 into focus quickly.

If the $2.128 support level fails, price risks sliding back toward the lower range boundary NEAR $2.06. The breakout structure remains intact as long as this support holds.

Volume tapered after the initial surge past $2.12. The market appears to be waiting for additional participation or fresh catalysts.

XRP gained 2.04% to reach $2.12, outperforming broader crypto markets by approximately 180 basis points. The consolidation band between $2.128 and $2.152 represents the current trading range as the market digests the breakout move.