Tom Lee Forecasts Rocky Start to 2026, Then a Colossal Crypto Surge

Wall Street's crypto bull doubles down on his daring timeline.

The Setup Before the Surge

Forget smooth sailing. Fundstrat's Tom Lee maps a path of initial turbulence for digital assets in the new year—a final shakeout before the real move begins. He sees institutional capital waiting in the wings, protocols maturing under the radar, and regulatory frameworks slowly—painfully slowly—taking shape. The stage gets set while most headlines scream fear.

Why the Rally Will Ignite

Scarcity mechanics kick in. Adoption curves don't bend politely—they snap. Lee's model suggests the convergence of several macro and crypto-native catalysts will overwhelm selling pressure. Think traditional finance finally building usable on-ramps, not just talking about them. The infrastructure built during the bear market starts to carry real weight, not just promise.

The Trader's Dilemma

Navigating the predicted early-year volatility requires steel nerves. It's the classic Wall Street trap: analysts love forecasting pain just around the corner and euphoria a comfortable distance away—it keeps you paying for research without ever having to be right today. The trick is separating strategic accumulation from catching a falling knife.

Lee's call hinges on a simple, brutal truth: financial markets overshoot in both directions. The coming rally won't be a gentle climb. It'll be a violent recalibration of value, leaving skeptics scrambling and the usual parade of late-arriving pundits claiming they saw it all along.

TLDR

• Tom Lee sees early-2026 volatility giving way to powerful crypto rebounds
• Bitcoin primed for structural demand and a potential record-setting breakout
• Ethereum enters a multi-year upswing fueled by rising institutional adoption
• S&P 500 outlook targets 7,700 as productivity and earnings strengthen
• Market repositioning sets the stage for renewed confidence into late 2026

Tom Lee renewed his bullish outlook on digital assets as markets entered the new year, and he projected a sharp rebound after early turbulence. He outlined a scenario where short-term weakness gives way to powerful gains, and he linked this shift to structural repositioning across major firms. Tom Lee also pointed toward renewed momentum in key assets and highlighted broader economic strength.

Bitcoin Outlook Strengthens Ahead of 2026

Tom Lee stated that Bitcoin remains below its potential, and he argued that the asset has not reached its peak. He emphasized that market pullbacks often precede renewed expansion, and he pointed to January as a window for a possible record. Tom Lee added that recent declines reflect repositioning rather than long-term weakness.

Bitcoin approached the end of 2025 with sharp swings, and its price movement signaled a complex transition phase. However, Tom Lee maintained that structural demand continues to build, and he linked this trend to strengthening digital asset adoption. He also projected that new capital flows could support a significant breakout later in the month.

The previous year delivered both historic highs and abrupt reversals, and bitcoin reached levels well above earlier cycles. Yet Tom Lee remains confident that the asset can regain momentum during 2026, and he underscored the impact of strategic rebalancing. He further noted that stronger activity in the second half could shift market sentiment.

Ethereum Positioned for a Multi-Year Expansion

Tom Lee described ethereum as undervalued, and he suggested that the asset now enters a long expansion phase. He compared its trajectory to an earlier Bitcoin cycle, and he highlighted growing institutional accumulation. Tom Lee also pointed to strengthening network activity and expanding use cases.

Ethereum finished 2025 with moderate gains, and its price remained below previous expectations. Still, Tom Lee argued that the asset holds long-term upside, and he framed accumulation as a strategic priority. He added that his firm increased its holdings and continues to expand its position.

Market signals now suggest renewed development across the ecosystem, and demand for Ethereum-linked applications continues to rise. Tom Lee expects this phase to support multi-year growth, and he said that volatility may create openings. He also noted that sustained activity could reinforce confidence across the broader market.

Equities Enter 2026 With Strong Targets

Tom Lee projected that the S&P 500 could reach 7,700 by the end of 2026, and he linked this view to earnings strength. He said that productivity gains support long-term expansion, and he cited broader economic resilience. Tom Lee also maintained that market pullbacks may create favorable entry points.

Corporate performance remained stable through 2025, and economic trends showed steady improvement. Tom Lee expects that these conditions will support further growth, and he stressed that earnings remain firm. He added that AI-driven efficiency could reinforce expansion across multiple sectors.

Market volatility may persist through early 2026, and repositioning could shape near-term movement. Even so, Tom Lee predicted constructive conditions later in the year, and he said that long-term trends remain intact. He concluded that renewed strength across crypto and equities could define the final months of 2026.