Glassnode’s 2026 Outlook: Bitcoin’s Fragile Recovery Phase Shows Bullish Signs
Bitcoin's latest bounce-back looks promising—but don't get too comfortable just yet. Glassnode's latest data suggests the digital asset is navigating a fragile recovery phase, packed with bullish signals that could either set the stage for a major rally or another gut-wrenching dip.
The Fragile Foundation
Recoveries in crypto aren't built on solid ground—they're built on sentiment, momentum, and a whole lot of hopium. Right now, Bitcoin's showing classic signs of a market finding its feet after a shakeout. On-chain metrics hint at accumulation, reduced selling pressure, and wallets holding tight instead of panic-dumping. It's the kind of setup that gets traders leaning forward in their chairs.
Bullish Signals You Can't Ignore
Despite the fragility, several indicators are flashing green. Think reduced exchange reserves, rising long-term holder numbers, and network activity that suggests renewed interest—not just speculative froth. These aren't guarantees, but in a market that runs on narratives, they're powerful fuel.
The Cynical Take
Let's be real—Wall Street still treats crypto like a risky side bet, while somehow managing to lose billions in traditional markets without blinking. Bitcoin's recovery might be fragile, but compared to the legacy finance circus, it's practically a model of stability.
What Comes Next?
Watch for sustained momentum above key levels. If Bitcoin holds its ground and builds on these early signs, we could be looking at the start of something meaningful. If not? Well, it's crypto—volatility's part of the package. Either way, the next few weeks will tell us if this fragile recovery has real legs, or if it's just another dead-cat bounce in disguise.
TLDR
- Bitcoin’s RSI has moved into the upper-neutral zone, indicating renewed upside momentum.
- Glassnode reported a decrease in loss-taking behavior, suggesting improved sentiment among Bitcoin holders.
- Spot market data shows reduced sell-side pressure with modest growth in trading volumes.
- Perpetual futures markets reflect renewed buying interest with more controlled use of leverage.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs are recording steady inflows, showing a return of institutional demand.
Bitcoin is showing clear signs of recovery, with metrics pointing to improving momentum, reduced selling pressure, and growing institutional interest.
On-chain analytics platform Glassnode reported Monday that the Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounded to the upper-neutral zone, signaling renewed upside momentum, while sell-side pressure has eased across spot and derivatives markets, and institutional flows have resumed through US spot ETFs.
$BTC is stabilising within the $80K–$95K range as momentum recovers and sell pressure fades. Spot liquidity is thin, open interest is rebuilding cautiously, and options markets point to near-term volatility.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse
https://t.co/gThjwACo4H pic.twitter.com/ehcrTHjkZR
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 5, 2026
While sentiment is improving, analysts warned the market remains fragile, as on-chain demand continues to lag behind broader market activity.
Glassnode Observes Strengthening Metrics and Improving Sentiment
Glassnode stated that Bitcoin’s RSI climbed back into the upper-neutral zone, showing renewed upward price momentum.
The firm said, “Sell-side aggression is softening as spot volumes increase modestly, improving liquidity without signs of excessive speculation.”
The number of bitcoin holders realizing losses also declined, suggesting a gradual recovery in sentiment and conviction.
This shift in behavior reflects reduced panic-selling, with more supply returning to profit across different price cohorts.
Glassnode emphasized that perpetual futures markets are showing controlled leverage and renewed buying activity.
The firm added that derivatives positioning appears more stable, avoiding the excessive leverage seen during previous volatile phases.
Institutional Flows Support Price Recovery
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen consistent inflows, indicating renewed institutional demand.
Glassnode noted this trend supports a “fragile consolidation regime” where the asset is recovering from its corrective phase.
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, stated that, “BTC is showing upside potential with strong options interest targeting levels above $100K.”
He explained that Bitcoin is building strength for a breakout from its recent range as technical indicators turn more positive.
The asset ROSE to a local high of $94,600 before cooling slightly during early Tuesday Asian trading.
At press time, Bitcoin had retraced to $93,820, maintaining most of its early-year gains.
Market Breakout Attempts Face Resistance
Analyst ‘Sykodelic’ pointed to a breakout in the On-Balance Volume (OBV), marking an end to the downtrend since its all-time high.
This MOVE from Bitcoin is looking really promising.
We now have OBV breaking out from both the downtrend from $126k, and the local bottoming range here.
Which is being driven by spot buying, with a Coinbase premium looking to flip positive.
I WOULD like to see us get above and… https://t.co/qvhIEzrfNL pic.twitter.com/RJSS1TR2J8
— Sykodelic
(@Sykodelic_) January 5, 2026
He said, “Spot accumulation is driving this breakout as OBV clears the previous local range.”
Sykodelic identified $94,500 as a key resistance level that must break to reach higher targets NEAR $98,000 to $100,000.
Support near $94,000 remains crucial to sustain the move, as failing it could trigger more profit-taking.
Retail traders continue to sell into price increases, reducing upward momentum in the short term.
Meanwhile, institutions are maintaining buying pressure, driving early gains in 2026.
Bitcoin has climbed 7% year-to-date, signaling a positive start after a volatile 2025.
The asset continues to trade just below resistance, with eyes on further gains if current support holds.
