VanEck Index Flashes Bitcoin Buy Signal as Market Hits Low Zone - Time to Load Up?

Another buy signal just flashed for Bitcoin—and this one comes from a heavyweight in traditional finance.

VanEck's proprietary market index has dipped into what it defines as a 'low zone,' historically a precursor to significant BTC rallies. The indicator, which tracks multiple on-chain and market metrics, suggests institutional accumulation patterns are aligning with retail fear.

The Signal in the Noise

Forget the daily noise—the real story is in the structural data. VanEck's model isn't reacting to headlines; it's measuring capital flows and holder behavior. When their index hits this territory, it typically means long-term investors are buying while short-term speculators are capitulating. It's the financial equivalent of blood in the water for sharks with deep pockets.

Why This Time Might Be Different

Previous buy zones coincided with macro uncertainty. Today's landscape adds regulatory clarity and ETF integration—transforming Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a balance sheet staple for funds that once mocked it. The very institutions that called it a bubble now track it with proprietary indices. Funny how that works.

The signal is clear, the zone is entered. Whether it's a genius contrarian call or just another false dawn for bag holders remains to be seen—but in finance, the early bird gets the worm, and the late one gets the prospectus fine print.

TLDR

• VanEck’s Heat Index hits 16.8%, placing the crypto market in undervalued territory.
• Bitcoin trades above $93,700, rising 7.5% in the past seven days, per CoinGecko.
• VanEck’s breadth model shows the first bullish Bitcoin signal in several months.
• Previous signals from the index led to a median 20.4% return over 90 days.

VanEck’s MarketVector Crypto Heat Index has issued its first Bitcoin buy signal since early April 2025. This development marks a potential turning point in the digital asset market. The index, created by MarketVector Indexes, a VanEck subsidiary, now reads 16.8%. This places it firmly in the ‘Undervalued’ zone, which ranges from 0% to 25%.

The index aims to provide a structured measure of market valuation. It relies on technical indicators and moving averages rather than sentiment-driven data. Martin Leinweber, Digital Asset Product Strategist at MarketVector, confirmed the signal via a post on X, noting bullish technical momentum.

Technical Indicators Shift Toward Accumulation

The bullish signal was triggered after the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of the index crossed above the 50-day SMA. This crossover happened while the index remained in undervalued territory. According to past performance, such signals have led to a median return of 20.4% over 90 days and 76.7% over one year for Bitcoin.

VanEck’s internal models use technical and structural data points to monitor crypto cycles. These include market breadth, price momentum, and moving averages.

Source: X

According to Leinweber, the market shows signs of stabilization as more altcoins begin to outperform Bitcoin. He added, “Breadth stabilizing. More constituents outperforming Bitcoin. Signs that capitulation-level sentiment may be behind us.”

Market Sentiment Appears Near Cycle Lows

Bitcoin recently broke above $91,000 and is now trading around $93,219. This marks a 7.5% gain over the past week, according to CoinGecko data. Rising geopolitical tensions and improved liquidity conditions are also contributing to the shift in market dynamics.

VanEck analysts suggest that the current period may represent a favorable window for investors who are still underallocated to crypto. The firm has observed that bitcoin tends to recover in four-year cycles.

Proprietary* VanEck breadth signal flags first BTC bull call since April 7, 2025, the bottom tick last year. https://t.co/kq1fxcBVDg pic.twitter.com/dxUz2BlfEP

— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) January 5, 2026

2026 may enter the recovery phase after Bitcoin’s underperformance in late 2025. Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets, endorsed the analysis on X. He said their proprietary breadth model gave its first bullish signal in months.

Index Methodology and Historical Context

The MarketVector Crypto Heat Index categorizes the crypto market into three valuation zones: undervalued (0–25%), neutral (25–75%), and overheated (75–100%). It avoids emotional indicators like the Fear & Greed Index and instead uses quantitative data for consistency.

The last time the index gave a buy signal was in April 2025. That signal preceded a major rebound following a correction triggered by U.S.–China trade tensions. Analysts believe the current reading could indicate another market low, providing tactical entry points for investors.

The combination of technical indicators, improving breadth, and rising prices suggests that crypto market conditions may be stabilizing. As a result, investors and fund managers may now look to reassess crypto exposure in early 2026.