Robinhood Slashes Bitcoin’s $150K Odds to 14% Before June 2026

Robinhood just trimmed the market's optimism—hard. The trading platform now gives Bitcoin just a 14% shot at hitting $150,000 before the June 2026 deadline. That's a significant downgrade from previous internal projections.

The Probability Adjustment

This isn't a minor tweak; it's a recalibration. The move signals a more cautious stance from a major retail gateway, potentially reflecting revised risk models or a cooler outlook on the macro catalysts needed for a mega-rally. It's the kind of shift that makes traders check their portfolio balances twice.

What's Behind the Cut?

While the exact algorithms are proprietary, the math points to heightened volatility, regulatory overhangs, or simply a reassessment of past growth trajectories. It’s a classic case of a platform managing user expectations—better to under-promise and over-deliver, or so the thinking goes in traditional finance circles. After all, what's a financial model without a little conservative padding to cover the firm's back?

The Ripple Effect

This kind of public probability adjustment doesn't happen in a vacuum. It feeds into the sentiment cycle, potentially dampening the 'moon shot' narratives that fuel retail frenzies. Other platforms and analysts will now be pressured to clarify their own targets.

A dose of cold water from a mainstream player—just what the crypto doctor didn't order. Yet for the true believers, a 14% chance is still a chance. The bet on Bitcoin remains, but the house just lowered the odds.

TLDR

• Robinhood now assigns a 14 percent chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before June 2026.
• Bitcoin recently dropped 5.4 percent from a high of $94,792 after facing strong resistance.
• The current Bitcoin price is $89,200, which is 68% below the $150,000 target.
• In October 2025, Robinhood gave a 63 percent chance of Bitcoin hitting $150,000.
• The odds fell gradually as Bitcoin entered a downward trend during the last quarter of 2025.

Robinhood has reduced its probability estimate for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before June 2026 to 14%, reflecting reduced market confidence, after BTC failed to hold above key support levels and continued its correction from a recent peak, weakening bullish expectations.

The new odds come after a sharp decline from October 2025 projections, which placed Bitcoin’s chances at 63%, following a rally to an all-time high of $126,272. Current price action has lowered market sentiment, with bitcoin trading at $89,200, well below previous targets.

Bitcoin Faces Strong Resistance After Short Rally

Bitcoin began January 2026 with five consecutive days of gains, pushing the price over 7% higher in early trading. The rally led to a two-month peak of $94,792 on January 5 before encountering firm resistance.

After the peak, Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 support zone, losing 5.4% from its local high. The drop erased short-term gains and limited bullish momentum.

Robinhood’s updated 14% estimate reflects market correction and reduced confidence in the asset reaching $150,000 in the short term. The company shared the revised forecast on X to highlight the change in sentiment.

14% chance Bitcoin hits $150k before June 2026.https://t.co/PwAzsgRhKv

Futures and cleared swaps trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC., a registered futures commission merchant and swap… pic.twitter.com/lYVUhohXUx

— Robinhood (@RobinhoodApp) January 8, 2026

BTC Price Action Drags Down Prediction Odds

Bitcoin reached a record high of $126,272 on October 6, 2025, pushing Optimism about higher targets. At that time, Robinhood gave a 63% chance of BTC hitting $150,000 by June 2026.

But the bullish momentum weakened quickly as the price trend reversed during Q4 2025. By November 1, 2025, the probability dropped to 45%, reflecting the fading upward momentum.

As Bitcoin slid further to around $90,000 by the end of November, Robinhood’s model revised its odds to 27%. These figures continued to slide gradually during the correction.

In early January 2026, the likelihood stood at 13% but fluctuated between 12% and 16% in recent days. As of now, Robinhood’s latest estimate stands at 14%.

Robinhood Lowers Short-Term Bitcoin Forecast

Robinhood assigns varying probabilities based on shorter time frames for Bitcoin reaching $150,000. It gives a 9% chance of reaching the level before May 2026.

The chance drops further to 4% before April 2026 and just 2% before February. These projections reflect near-term resistance and weakened price performance.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” had earlier predicted Bitcoin could soon reach $150,000. Tom Lee of Fundstrat also forecasted a potential climb to that level within 12 months in early 2024.

In March 2024, Standard Chartered raised its Bitcoin target to $150,000 based on market developments. Gautam Chhugani of Bernstein later echoed that forecast with a projection for 2026. Bitcoin now requires a 68% gain from its current $89,200 price to hit the $150,000 milestone.