VanEck’s Bold Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: $2.9 Million by 2050

Forget six figures—try seven. A major asset manager just threw a financial Molotov cocktail into the crypto discourse.

The Long Game: A Quarter-Century Bet

VanEck's eye-watering forecast isn't for next week or next year. It's a 2050 target, painting a picture of Bitcoin's maturation from volatile asset to a cornerstone of global value storage. The projection hinges on Bitcoin capturing a significant slice of the world's store-of-value market—think gold, but digital, borderless, and programmable.

What's Driving the Math?

The $2.9 million figure isn't plucked from thin air. Analysts model scenarios based on adoption curves, potential regulatory clarity, and Bitcoin's fixed supply acting as a relentless scarcity engine. It assumes institutions and nations gradually move portions of their reserves on-chain—a slow-motion financial revolution that would reprice everything.

The Fine Print & The Friction

Of course, the road to eight-digit Bitcoin is paved with 'ifs.' Regulatory crackdowns, technological hurdles, or the emergence of a superior digital asset could derail the trajectory. It's the ultimate long-term bet, requiring a stomach for volatility that would give a traditional portfolio manager heartburn—just another day in crypto, really.

So, while Wall Street frets over basis points, the crypto vanguard is modeling a future where a single satoshi could buy a latte. Whether it's visionary or delusional depends entirely on your time horizon and your faith in code over country.

TLDR

• VanEck predicts Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 with a 15% compound annual growth rate.
• The forecast assumes Bitcoin will settle 5-10% of international trade and 5% of domestic trade by 2050.
• Central banks could hold 2.5% of their assets in Bitcoin according to the projection.
• At $2.9 million, Bitcoin would represent 1.66% of the world’s financial assets.
• VanEck’s bear case sees Bitcoin at $130,000 and bull case at $52.4 million by 2050.

Asset manager VanEck has released a long-term price forecast for Bitcoin. The firm predicts the cryptocurrency could reach $2.9 million by 2050.

$161 billion investment firm VanEck is predicting a $2.9 million #Bitcoin price by 2050 and you're bearish?pic.twitter.com/c2EtXG7Yo0

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 8, 2026

VanEck manages $161 billion in assets. The prediction comes from the company’s digital assets research team.

Matthew Sigel leads digital assets research at VanEck. Patrick Bush serves as senior investment analyst. They published the forecast in a note on Thursday.

The $2.9 million projection assumes a 15% compound annual growth rate. This represents VanEck’s base case scenario for Bitcoin’s future.

The forecast depends on Bitcoin’s adoption in global trade. VanEck expects the cryptocurrency to settle 5-10% of international trade by 2050. The firm also projects bitcoin will handle 5% of domestic trade.

Global liquidity expansion WOULD drive the price increase. Monetary debasement would also contribute to Bitcoin’s growth.

The analysts view Bitcoin as a long-term hedge. They said it functions against adverse monetary outcomes. Short-term price action depends on global liquidity cycles and leverage.

Central Bank Adoption Projections

VanEck estimates central banks could hold 2.5% of their assets in Bitcoin. This level of institutional adoption forms part of the base case.

At $2.9 million per coin, Bitcoin would make up 1.66% of global financial assets. This calculation factors into the overall valuation model.

The firm presented three scenarios for 2050. The bear case assumes a 2% compound annual growth rate. This would result in a Bitcoin price of $130,000.

The bull case projects a 20% compound annual growth rate. Under this scenario, Bitcoin would reach $52.4 million.

Current Trade Settlement Usage

Bitcoin already facilitates some international trade. The cryptocurrency sees use in sanctioned countries including Venezuela, Iran and Russia.

G7 countries have shown little adoption of Bitcoin for trade settlement. The digital asset has not gained traction among major developed economies.

SWIFT data from September 2025 shows current trade settlement currencies. The US dollar accounts for 47.8% of international trade. The euro represents 22.8% and the British pound accounts for 7.4%.

VanEck’s analysts described Bitcoin as more than a tactical trade. They see long-term value driven by Bitcoin’s relationship with sovereign debt system issues.

The forecast covers a 25-year timeframe ending in 2050. VanEck released the projection on January 8, 2026.