Sui price battles resistance below $4—will bears take control?

Sui's valuation hits a wall under the $4 threshold as traders brace for potential downside. The token—once a darling of the degens—now faces a make-or-break moment.

Market sentiment sours as Sui struggles

Network activity flatlines while competing L1s eat its lunch. Volume tells the story: traders are voting with their wallets.

Technical outlook turns bearish

The $4 resistance level holds firm like a Wall Street banker's grip on transaction fees. Each rejection paints a clearer picture—this isn't consolidation, it's capitulation.

What's next for Sui?

Either the bulls find conviction (and liquidity), or we're looking at another 'high-potential' project becoming exit liquidity for VCs. Welcome to crypto—where the fundamentals are made up and the token unlocks matter more than the tech.

The decline comes amid a broader market cooldown, with Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), and several other tokens posting minor losses over the past day as the recent weekend rally loses steam.

Beyond market fatigue, SUI has been under pressure since its largest-ever token unlock on August 1, when tokens worth $162 million, about 1.3% of the token’s total supply, hit the market. The unlock is part of a long-term schedule that adds over 55 million tokens each month through 2030, creating a recurring supply overhang.

The added supply appears to have cooled trader appetite, with open interest down 15% over the past week and funding rates sliding from 0.075% in July to 0.0083%, according to Coinglass data. 

While SUI still remains roughly up 5% on the month, another looming token unlock now threatens further downside.

SUI at risk of deeper decline

According to data from Tokenomist, SUI is set for a series of daily token unlocks over the next seven days, each worth more than $1 million. The releases will expand its circulating supply alongside other major assets, including SOL, WLD, TIA, DOGE, TAO, and AVAX.

This could further extend the downward pressure on the token, particularly as market sentiment is already fragile. Rising supply in a consolidating market often weighs on prices, as short-term holders take profits and leverage positions unwind.

Still, market Optimism hasn’t faded. Technical analyst Ali Martinez recently noted that SUI’s price has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which may point to a bullish reversal above $4.45.

Inverse head and shoulders forming on $SUI, targeting $4.45! pic.twitter.com/5YIYIhZjyl

Institutional activity in SUI is also growing, evidenced by recent treasury allocations and ecosystem partnerships. So far this month, Nasdaq-listed Mill City Capital has committed around $316 million to a SUI-focused treasury strategy, boosting a bullish long-term outlook. 

For now, SUI faces downside pressure from rising supply and overall weakening sentiment. However, strong buying activity and renewed investor confidence could help push the token’s price back up and restore positive momentum.