Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 Pill Just Crushed Novo Nordisk’s in Testing - Here’s The Critical Investor Takeaway

Pharma giant Eli Lilly just delivered a knockout punch in the GLP-1 weight loss drug race.

BREAKING: Oral Formulation Dominates

Lilly's pill formulation demonstrated superior efficacy against Novo Nordisk's rival treatment in recent clinical trials. The results signal a potential market shift away from injectable therapies that have dominated the diabetes and obesity space.

Investor Implications: Market Share Shakeup

This development threatens Novo's current market dominance while positioning Lilly for significant revenue expansion. The convenience factor of a pill versus injection could drive massive patient adoption—provided pricing and insurance coverage align.

Wall Street's predictable frenzy over quarterly prescriptions data misses the bigger picture: sustainable competitive advantages matter more than temporary prescription spikes. The real winners will be patients gaining access to more convenient treatments—and shareholders backing the right horse in this high-stakes pharmaceutical race.

Eli Lilly's trial data

It's essential to never take the headline data of clinical trials as gospel, and that's especially relevant in this case. First, this head-to-head trial was aimed at lowering A1C levels (a measure of blood sugar), and, on this basis, the reported results do support the idea of superiority for Lilly's drug. For example, at the highest dosage of orforglipron (36mg), there was a 2.2% reduction in A1C compared to a 1.4% reduction in A1C in oral semaglutide at the highest dosage (14mg).

However, data about the secondary endpoint of weight loss needs to be put into context. Eli Lilly claims that the highest dosage of orforglipron (36mg) produced an average weight loss of 9.2%, compared to a 5.3% reduction for the highest dosage (14mg) of oral semaglutide (a rival GLP-1 drug).

But here's the thing. Novo Nordisk is trialing oral semaglutide at a much higher dosage (25mg) in obesity than the 14mg dosage used in the Eli Lilly trial.

Image source: Getty Images.

In fact, Novo Nordisk recently released results from its Oasis 4 phase 3 trial in obesity at the 25mg dosage, reporting an average weight reduction of 16.6%.

What it could mean for investors

While the trial is good news for Eli Lilly in treating type 2 diabetes, it should not be taken as evidence of orforglipron winning out over oral semaglutide in terms of efficacy in the more lucrative obesity indication.