Starlink’s 2025 Showdown: Will Elon Musk SPAC or IPO the Satellite Giant?

Elon Musk's Starlink is hurtling toward a 2025 liquidity event—but will it blast off via SPAC or traditional IPO? The satellite internet disruptor has Wall Street scrambling for telescopes.

The SPAC Gambit: Blank-check deals are so 2021... unless you're Musk. A reverse merger could let Starlink bypass SEC scrutiny like a satellite dodging space debris. Just don't call it a 'shortcut'—call it 'innovative market positioning.'

IPO Escape Velocity: Going public the old-fashioned way means weathering analyst scrutiny and actually turning a profit. But when has Musk ever done things the conventional way? Buckle up for a prospectus that reads like sci-fi.

Either way, bankers are salivating over those sweet, sweet underwriting fees. Because nothing says 'financial innovation' like taking 7% off the top of retail investors' money.

Image source: Getty Images.

What we know, and what we don't

One thing we know with NEAR certainty is that SpaceX is unlikely to go public in its entirety -- at least not anytime soon. But SpaceX could spin off Starlink and take it public as a standalone business, and most reports and comments from insiders have indicated that it's the most likely route the company could take.

We also know that CEO Elon Musk has addressed this issue several times. In fact, one of the reasons that many investors think a Starlink IPO could be coming soon is that in 2022, Musk told SpaceX employees that a Starlink IPO wasn't likely until 2025 or later. He said that the business needed to achieve predictability and to be "in a smooth sailing situation" before an IPO, and with most reports indicating that Starlink is nicely profitable and generating billions in recurring revenue, there's an argument to be made that Musk's benchmarks have been met.

On the other hand, in a 2023 post on X, Musk told investors that Starlink wasn't having any problems raising money through private investors, and therefore it didn't make sense to go through the trouble of taking Starlink public.

More recently, Musk said at a 2025 conference that it's "possible that Starlink may go public at some point in the future," but he didn't seem to be in any rush to make it happen.

How much could Starlink be worth as a public company?

SpaceX, the parent of Starlink, is reportedly valued at about $400 billion in the private markets, based on a $1 billion share sale in July.

When it comes to the standalone value of Starlink, which makes up the bulk of SpaceX's revenue according to most estimates, it's a little more difficult. Plus, the potential valuation depends on whom you ask. One analyst estimates that Starlink will reach $12.3 billion in revenue in 2025.

As far as how this might translate into a market value, estimates have varied widely. Most estimates have been in the $30 billion to $100 billion range, although billionaire investor RON Baron said that Starlink will go public at a valuation in the $250 billion to $300 billion range, but that it won't happen until about 2027.

The bottom line

While a Starlink (or SpaceX) IPO isn't out of the question, I don't view it as likely to happen in 2025. For one thing, Starlink has become a cash machine for SpaceX and is instrumental in funding its development. And as we've seen with virtually every private funding round and stock sale, SpaceX has absolutely no difficulty in raising money through private investors. As mentioned, Musk indicated this in a 2023 post, and I'd argue that it's even easier for Starlink to raise money now.

If Starlink does go public, I'd say there's a higher probability of a traditional IPO than a SPAC. It WOULD likely be the largest SPAC target of all time if it chooses that route, and while both processes have their pros and cons, the poor record of SPAC IPO performance might scare Musk away from this route.

To sum it up, I'm not holding my breath for a Starlink IPO in 2025, even though Musk has said that he'd eventually like to do one. It may come later, but I just don't see Musk in any particular rush to take the company public.