A Little Good News for Lucid Investors: Why This Could Be the Turnaround Moment

Lucid investors finally catch a break as the embattled EV maker shows unexpected signs of life.

Breaking the downtrend

After months of brutal selloffs and skeptical analyst coverage, Lucid's latest moves suggest the company might be learning to navigate the brutal EV landscape. Production hiccums? Addressing them. Delivery bottlenecks? Getting sorted. The market's starting to notice—even if Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic at best.

Beyond the headlines

This isn't just about stock price movements. Lucid's tech continues to draw praise from those who actually drive the vehicles. Range efficiency remains best-in-class, and the luxury appeal hasn't diminished despite the financial headwinds. The company's staying in the conversation when many thought they'd be acquired or bankrupt by now.

Reality check

Let's be clear—this is one positive data point in a sea of red. The EV space remains overcrowded, capital-intensive, and brutally competitive. But for investors who've been holding through the pain, today's news offers something rare: validation that their thesis might not be completely insane. Sometimes in markets, not losing is the new winning.

When one door closes...

In an attempt to keep the momentum it's gained with deliveries, Lucid is offering a $7,500 lease discount on the Gravity SUV during the fourth quarter to help offset the loss of the federal tax credit that expires at the end of September. It specifically applies to lessees who place an order by the end of September and take delivery between Oct. 1 and the end of 2025.

It's simply a way for Lucid to help out people who were banking on the federal tax credit but weren't able to take delivery of a Gravity by the end of September. It's likely a bigger deal than investors realize, because the U.S. EV market is going to be bumpy for the remainder of the year.

Remember that due to the tax credit ending at the end of September, it pulled ahead demand from people who were on the fence, and will likely leave an equally strong lull in demand once that pull-through is finished. New U.S. EV registrations ROSE 4.6% in June, compared to the prior year, but EV market share fell for the month and stayed flat for the first half of the year, according to S&P Global Mobility data. That means that right when Lucid gets production of the Gravity to desired levels, the EV market in the U.S. might be cooling off.

Right now, it appears that new hybrid offerings are giving consumers reason to delay going fully electric. "People who WOULD have maybe gone fully electric are thinking hybrid is the easy choice because I have to make zero changes to my lifestyle and I'll save money," said Loren McDonald, chief analyst at EV data analytics firm Paren, according to Automotive News. "They're thinking, 'If I wait a couple of years, they're going to be way better.' "

The Gravity is crucial

While Lucid produces an excellent vehicle in its Air sedan, the Gravity is going to open up the doors to a wider audience. Lucid said that the Gravity market could be up to six times that of the Air sedan.

Image source: Lucid.

Understanding how important the Gravity is to Lucid in the NEAR term and long term had investors a little anxious when it was reported that the Gravity only generated nine U.S. registrations by the end of June, six months after starting production.

While Lucid has said that the numbers aren't indicative of current sales, it's clear that production has not accelerated to the desired level, leaving the company to take what few production vehicles it has to use for test drives, showrooms, and employees. Furthering that sentiment is that Lucid cut its 2025 production outlook from the original 20,000 to a range of 18,000 to 20,000 vehicles.

What it all means

This is just another signal of how crucial the Gravity's success is to Lucid, and it helping consumers take advantage of a tax credit they were banking on is good business for the automaker. It also sets the Gravity up for a significant increase in deliveries during the back half of the year, which would continue the company's streak of record-breaking quarters of deliveries.

Lucid has momentum, and this is a little good news for investors that the momentum should continue going forward, even if the rest of the U.S. EV industry is in for a bumpy ride. But remember, young EV start-ups are high-risk and high-reward, and should remain a small position in any portfolio.