Instacart’s 2025 Earnings Reveal the Brutal Truth About Grocery Delivery’s Future

Grocery delivery's golden child just showed its scars—and the sector should be sweating.

The Instacart Reality Check

Peel back the veneer of convenience, and you'll find a business model still scrambling for profitability. Same-day deliveries? A logistical nightmare masked by venture capital fumes. Subscription perks? Just a retention band-aid for fickle consumers.

Wall Street’s Grocery Math

Analysts expected hockey-stick growth—instead, they got a margin squeeze worthy of a discount avocado. The ‘last-mile’ delivery fantasy? Still hemorrhaging cash faster than a spoiled gallon of milk.

The Cynic’s Takeaway

Another ‘disruptor’ learning the hard way: consumers love convenience… until they have to actually pay for it. Bon appétit, shareholders.

Key Takeaways

• Maplebear, known as Instacart, beat profit and sales estimates as orders and spending on those orders increased.
• The grocery delivery company reported strong October demand, but gains may be tempered because of the loss of federal food benefits during the government shutdown.

Maplebear (CART), better known as Instacart, posted better-than-expected results as shoppers placed more orders and spent more money on them.

The grocery delivery provider reported third-quarter earnings per share of $0.51, a penny above what analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha were anticipating. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) grew 22% to $278 million, and revenue ROSE 10% to $939 million. Those beat forecasts as well.

Why This Is Significant

Instacart’s results suggest that demand for online grocery delivery is strong despite consumers facing tighter budgets. The grocery delivery company's use of new artificial intelligence tools and focus on retail partnerships could help offset headwinds from reduced federal SNAP benefits.

Total orders increased 14% to 83.4 million, and gross transaction value (GTV) was up 10% to $9.17 billion. Both also exceeded Visible Alpha estimates. 

The company benefited from the use of artificial intelligence, “which is helping us build smarter products, better tools, and more accurate measurement across our ads ecosystem," said CEO Chris Rogers.

Instacart predicts current quarter GTV of $9.45 billion to $9.60 billion, which “reflects our strong performance in October, continued momentum from landing and expanding our enterprise partnerships, and is partially offset by the expected impact of EBT SNAP funding scenarios on our business.” Federal EBT SNAP money was suspended earlier this month due to the government shutdown. 

Related Education

Maplebear shares were down 0.7% in mid-afternoon trading Monday. The stock has lost about 12% of its value since the start of the year.