Retiring in 2025? Ditch the 4% Rule—This New Withdrawal Rate Could Save Your Nest Egg

Forget everything you thought you knew about retirement math. The sacred 4% rule—the bedrock of financial planning for decades—just got a challenger.

A fresh report is slicing through conventional wisdom, proposing a starkly different withdrawal strategy for those eyeing retirement next year. It’s not a gentle tweak; it’s a fundamental recalculation of risk and reward in a world of volatile markets and stubborn inflation.

Why the Old Math Doesn't Add Up

The classic 4% rule promised safety over a 30-year horizon. But that model was built for a different era—one with different bond yields, stock valuations, and life expectancies. Applying yesterday's formula to tomorrow's retirement is like using a paper map on a self-driving car. You might get there, but you'll bypass all the better routes.

The New Number on the Block

So what's the magic figure? The report doesn't just suggest a minor adjustment. It builds a case for a specific, data-driven rate that aims to protect capital longevity against modern economic headwinds. This isn't guesswork; it's a model built for 2025's financial climate, where traditional safe havens aren't so safe anymore.

The strategy hinges on dynamic adjustments, not a static percentage. It forces a conversation about flexibility, spending cuts in down markets, and the real cost of a fixed income. It turns retirement from a set-it-and-forget-it plan into an active management exercise.

The Fine Print and The Future

Adopting this approach requires a stomach for complexity and a distrust of simple rules. It means acknowledging that your portfolio isn't a perpetual motion machine—it needs fuel, maintenance, and sometimes, a major course correction.

Ultimately, this report cuts to the heart of modern retirement anxiety: the fear of outliving your money. It offers a path, but one that demands more engagement than the old, comforting rule of thumb. Because in finance, the only free lunch is the one your advisor eats while telling you about the 4% rule.

Key Takeaways

• Morningstar’s new analysis suggests a 3.9% starting withdrawal rate gives retirees a high probability of not running out of money during a 30-year retirement.
• Delaying Social Security until age 70 can meaningfully boost lifetime retirement income, but it may require temporary spending cuts or bridge strategies.

You've done the work of saving for retirement, but now that you've reached your golden years, do you have a plan for how you'll spend down your nest egg?

For future retirees, Morningstar suggests withdrawing 3.9% of your portfolio the first year and then adjusting for inflation every year after that, according to a new report.

The researchers found that a starting withdrawal rate of 3.9% had a 90% probability of success over a 30-year retirement horizon, assuming a portfolio composed of 30% to 50% stocks, with the remainder in bonds and cash.

So what WOULD this practically look like for a retiree?

If someone had roughly $1 million saved, they would withdraw $39,000 the first year. The next year, they would withdraw $39,959, assuming a 2.46% inflation rate.

What This Means For You

Your withdrawal strategy is just one decision you'll make when retirement planning. Make sure to carefully weigh factors like taxes, investment fees, and Social Security timing, too.

The retiree would then continue to adjust their withdrawal amount based on the inflation rate every year. In nine out of 10 scenarios, they would end up with at least some money left over if their retirement lasted 30 years.

While this guideline can be helpful as a rule of thumb, it should be used as a starting point—factors like taxes and investment fees can further erode investment returns, the researchers point out.

For example, someone who has the bulk of their retirement savings housed in a Roth IRA and invested in low-cost index funds will part with less of their money when taking withdrawals compared to someone who's tapping a traditional 401(k) that's primarily invested in actively managed funds.

This is because withdrawals of investment earnings from Roth IRAs are tax-free. In contrast, you must pay ordinary income tax on both your investment earnings and any contributions you withdraw from a traditional 401(k).

Related Education

Don't Forget Social Security

You'll want to consider your retirement strategy holistically, weighing the impact that Social Security will have on your retirement income, too.

Those who adhere to the 3.9% withdrawal rule and delay collecting Social Security until age 70 will end up with the total highest lifetime spending amount, according to the Morningstar report.

Ideally, people would collect Social Security at age 70 and continue working until then, but if that's not an option for you, the researchers have a few suggestions for building a financial 'bridge' between ages 67, the full retirement age for those born in 1960 or later, and 70:

• Create a three-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) ladder: With this strategy, you withdraw three years' worth of annual spending from your nest egg. You then divvy that money among three separate TIPS, making sure that one bond matures each at ages 68, 69, and 70.
• Eschew the inflation-adjustment for three years, as necessary: Withdraw 3.9% of your portfolio plus the amount you project you would receive from Social Security annually. However, if your portfolio has a negative annual return for any year between the ages of 67 and 70, forgo the inflation adjustment the following year.
• Reduce your retirement spending temporarily: With this method, you're limited to spending only a portion (80%) of your expected retirement spending until you reach 70, and you don't take inflation-adjustments after down markets. First, calculate 3.9% of your portfolio plus the amount you project you'll receive from Social Security annually. You'll then multiply that amount by 0.8 to yield your annual spending under this method.