Expecting a Big Raise in 2026? Don’t Count on It – Here’s Why

Forget the hype. The 2026 salary bump you're banking on? It's already priced out.

The Illusion of Future Gains

Traditional finance moves at glacial speed—budgets get set years in advance, projections are based on stale data, and by the time a 'raise' hits your account, inflation's already eaten it. It's a rigged game of catch-up you're destined to lose.

The Digital Asset Edge

Contrast that with crypto markets. They don't wait for annual review cycles. Value accrues in real-time to those building and participating in decentralized networks. Your stake in a protocol can compound daily, not yearly. It's performance-based, not permission-based.

Breaking the Paycheck Cycle

Waiting for a corporate committee to approve your value is a sucker's bet. The real raise happens when you bypass the middleman entirely—when your assets work for you on-chain, 24/7. Think yield, not yearly.

So, go ahead, wait for that 2026 'market adjustment.' The rest of us will be too busy building genuine wealth in the asset class that actually rewards innovation. After all, in traditional finance, a 'raise' is just a delayed apology for underpaying you last year.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. employers are likely to raise wages moderately in 2026, according to forecasts, as the job market is expected to stay stuck in low gear.
  
• Raises will average 3.3% in 2026, according to one survey of employers.
  
• Some forecasters see upside for wages in industries like construction that have been affected by President Donald Trump's immigration crackdown.
  

Employers in the year ahead are likely to remain reluctant to embark on any major hiring sprees, and the lack of demand for workers should serve to keep a lid on pay increases.

Several major forecasts and surveys of employers largely call for the continuation of the job market's recent trends, in which hiring has slowed to a crawl compared to the last few years. Employers have been reluctant to hire too many workers, but also wary of mass layoffs, as economic uncertainty caused by unpredictable tariff policies has made planning future expansions difficult.

U.S. employers plan to give raises averaging 3.3%, a tenth of a percentage point lower than in 2025, according to a survey by payroll software company Payscale.

What This Means For the Economy

Wage growth is expected to be moderate in 2026, in line with the cooling labor market.

Forecasters at jobs website Indeed expect the job market to remain in low gear over the next year, with job openings stabilizing rather than continuing to decline, and unemployment rising, but not too much. None of that WOULD push employers to give out huge pay raises like they did in 2022 when labor was in high demand, and the economy was reopening from the pandemic.

Wage growth, as measured by salaries advertised in job postings, has cooled down over the last year, according to Indeed.

Fast Fact

Wages were up 2.5% over the year in September, compared to a 3.4% annual increase in January.

Some economists think the job market might slow down even further in the year ahead, which would put downward pressure on wages. This might be why the Fed has been lowering borrowing costs, which can boost hiring.

Related Education

However, some forecasters see upside for the job market and wages, as some of the market's recent slowdown has been attributed to a lack of workers, in addition to a lack of jobs. That could be especially true in industries affected by President Donald Trump's immigration crackdown, according to economists at Deutsche Bank, led by chief economist Mathew Luzzetti.

"Against a backdrop of continued weak labor supply, it will not take much improvement in demand conditions to stabilize and then re-tighten the labor market, at least modestly. Indeed, some sectors at the epicenter of the immigration crackdown, such as construction, appear to have tightened in recent months, with wages accelerating as payroll gains collapse," he wrote in a commentary.