Dow Jones Climbs as U.S.-India Trade Talks Reignite—Markets Hold Their Breath

Wall Street gets a cautious boost as two economic giants dust off negotiation playbooks.
Here’s what’s moving the needle—and why traders are side-eyeing the optimism.
The Low-Volume Grind Higher
Dow futures tick up—barely—as talks resume. No fireworks, just the usual diplomatic choreography. ‘Breakthrough’ headlines get clicks, but seasoned players know: trade deals move slower than crypto in a bear market.
The Real Stakes
Tech tariffs, pharma IP, and that eternal dance between ‘strategic partnership’ and ‘America First.’ Spoiler: both sides will claim victory while quietly settling for half-measures.
Cynic’s Corner
Another ‘constructive dialogue’ means another excuse for algos to pump volatility. Meanwhile, Main Street wonders when ‘trade progress’ actually translates to cheaper goods. Hint: don’t hold your breath.
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Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal is in the U.S. to negotiate trade between the two countries, saying India aims to boost its purchases of American energy. “And being close friends, natural partners, our energy security goals will have a very high element of U.S. involvement,” Goyal said.
U.S.-India Relations Strained by Tariffs and H-1B Visa Hike
Tensions between the two countries rose last month after President TRUMP doubled India’s tariff rate to 50% as punishment for its purchases of Russian oil. He also accused India of indirectly funding Russia’s offensive against Ukraine.
In addition, Trump raised the H-1B visa fee to $100,000 on Friday, disproportionately harming Indian workers given that they have accounted for about 70% of the visas in recent years. India’s government criticized the move, saying that it could have “humanitarian consequences by way of the disruption caused for families.”