Lucid (LCID) Stock Dreams Big but Still Stuck in Traffic, Says Andres Sheppard - Here’s Why

Lucid Motors hits a production bottleneck as ambitious targets meet harsh reality.

Execution Challenges

The EV maker's grand vision crashes into manufacturing constraints that keep deliveries crawling. Sheppard's analysis reveals a gap between promises and pavement.

Market Reality Check

While competitors accelerate production, Lucid remains trapped in the slow lane. The company's high-end positioning struggles against scaling economics.

Investor Patience Tested

Shareholders watch as timelines stretch and targets shift. The 'next Tesla' narrative faces its toughest road test yet.

Another case of Silicon Valley dreams meeting Detroit's hard truths—because building cars turns out to be harder than writing code.

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But the company is obviously trying to address that issue, and recently Cantor analyst Andres Sheppard hosted interim CEO Marc Winterhoff and CFO Taoufiq Boussaid for investor meetings, during which they gave updates on where the company is at right now.

For one, Lucid appears to be putting a bigger emphasis on autonomy and earlier this month confirmed it had finalized a $300 million strategic investment from Uber, first announced on July 17.

The funding will go toward developing Lucid’s next-gen premium robotaxi, which will be built at its Arizona facility and operate exclusively through Uber’s ride-hailing platform. The project brings together Lucid’s Gravity vehicle architecture, Nuro’s Level 4 autonomous driving system, and Uber’s fleet management network. Over the next six years, the companies plan to roll out more than 20,000 Lucid Gravity electric SUVs equipped with Nuro’s Level 4 technology across global markets, starting in late 2026 with a major U.S. city yet to be named. Sheppard sees this as a “material catalyst.”

That’s not the only one. Lucid confirmed that the Midsize Platform remains on schedule to begin production in late 2026. The company aims to launch the midsize vehicle with a starting price below $50,000 and plans to introduce three alternative “tophats,” meaning different body styles built on the same platform.

“We see this as a material catalyst, and we continue to believe the Midsize will allow Lucid to scale up production at higher volumes and improve gross margins,” the analyst further said. Sheppard believes this model is unlikely to be a sedan, and thinks the platform could be unveiled at the company’s next Analyst/Investor Day, which he expects in 1Q26.

Lucid also reiterated its full-year 2025 production guide of 18,000 to 20,000 vehicles. For context, in 2024 the company delivered 10,241 vehicles and produced 9,029. For 2025, Sheppard continues to forecast production of 18,500 vehicles and 16,650 deliveries, compared with the Visible Alpha consensus figures of 17,800 and 15,669, respectively.

“More importantly,” says Sheppard, “we are encouraged by LCID’s visibility into their upcoming deliveries.” With the roughly 20,000-vehicle agreement with Uber and the contract for up to 100,000 vehicles with the Saudi Arabian government, the analyst views this delivery visibility as an “important differentiator.”

But while Sheppard notes the positive developments taking place at Lucid and points to its vehicles’ strengths – superior battery efficiency, extended driving range, stronger performance, more interior space, faster charging – compared with other EVs, he maintains a cautious stance.

“Overall,” Sheppard summed up, “we remain Neutral due to persistent high negative gross margin, and additional capital needs, a worsening macro environment, and tariff uncertainty.”

However, that Neutral rating is backed by a new price target, bumped up from $20 to $26, suggesting the stock has upside of ~13% in it for the coming year. (To watch Sheppard’s track record, click here)

Most of Sheppard’s colleagues are also staying on the sidelines, giving the stock a consensus Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating. Still, the Street’s average price target sits at $30.90, implying 34% gains in the year ahead. (See)

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