SMCI Stock Plummets 9%: Mizuho Analyst’s Brutal Take on Disastrous Q1 Earnings

Another tech darling bites the dust—Super Micro Computer's stock just got absolutely hammered.

The 9% nosedive tells you everything you need to know about those Q1 numbers. Not even Mizuho's top brass could sugarcoat this mess.

When Earnings Go Sideways

SMCI investors woke up to a bloodbath—the kind that makes you question your entire portfolio strategy. That 9% drop wasn't just a correction; it was a full-scale retreat.

Analysts React: No Mercy

Mizuho's team came out swinging—no kid gloves for this performance. Their assessment cut through the corporate speak like a hot knife through butter.

Another quarter, another reminder that traditional tech stocks still dance to the same old tune—meanwhile, crypto assets continue rewriting the entire financial scorebook.

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Rakesh is a five-star analyst on TipRanks, ranking #35 out of 10,109 analysts tracked. He has a 66% success rate and an impressive average return per rating of 30.50%.

Why Mizuho Analyst Remains Cautious on SMCI Stock

Rakesh said Super Micro’s September-quarter revenue of $5.02 billion was in line with the company’s update but below Wall Street’s forecast of $6.09 billion. However, guidance for the December quarter was much stronger, with revenue expected to climb 109% quarter-over-quarter to $10.5 billion, beating the $8.06 billion estimate.

He pointed to solid AI server demand, with $12 billion in new design wins and a $13 billion order pipeline under the Blackwell Ultra program. The company also raised its Fiscal 2026 sales goal to at least $36 billion, up from its earlier target of over $33 billion.

Still, Rakesh said profit margins remain a concern. Gross margin fell about 350 basis points from the prior quarter due to higher engineering, labor, and delivery costs tied to large AI projects.

Looking ahead, he said Super Micro’s Data Center Building Block Systems (DCBBS) could help lift margins above 20% over time. However, with rising competition from peers like Dell (DELL) and ongoing cost pressures, Rakesh expects limited upside in the NEAR term.

Is SMCI Stock a Strong Buy? 

Currently, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Super Micro Computer stock based on seven Holds, four Buys, and three Sell recommendations. The average SMCI stock price target of $45.33 indicates about 4.37% downside risk from current levels.