Morgan Stanley Analyst Boosts NIO Stock Target to $6.50 on Restructuring Wins and Onvo Momentum

Morgan Stanley just upgraded NIO's price target to $6.50—because apparently restructuring and a new sub-brand are enough to make Wall Street forget about burning cash.

Restructuring Actually Working?

The analyst cited 'restructuring wins' as a key driver. Translation: they haven't gone bankrupt yet. Onvo, NIO's mass-market brand, is showing 'momentum'—which in EV-speak means 'people might actually buy these things.'

Numbers Don't Lie—But Analysts Do

That $6.50 target suggests a whopping... something. Because when you're bleeding billions, any positive movement looks like a victory. Classic Wall Street optimism—or just desperate for something green in the portfolio.

EV Reality Check

NIO's still competing in the most brutal sector on earth, where Tesla cuts prices weekly and Chinese manufacturers undercut everyone. But hey—$6.50 is better than zero. Probably.

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Key Estimate Revisions

Hsiao trimmed his 2025 delivery forecast for Nio by 9% to 330,000 units, citing soft performance in the first half of the year. However, Hsiao kept his 2026 and 2027 volume estimates unchanged at 470,000 and 586,000 units, respectively, pointing to strong demand for Nio’s new Onvo L90 SUV.

Also, he increased 2026 and 2027 gross margin estimates by 0.2 percentage points, citing a shift in product mix toward more profitable models. It must be noted that the analyst left the 2025 margin estimates unchanged.

In a positive sign for profitability, the analyst cut Nio’s operating expense estimate for 2025 by 10%. This reflects the effectiveness of NIO’s ongoing restructuring and cost-cutting initiatives, including a reduction in its workforce. As a result, Hsiao has narrowed the net loss estimates by 8% in 2025, 13% in 2026, and 9% in 2027.

NIO to Report Q2 Results on September 2

Nio is set to report second-quarter earnings on September 2, which could offer more clarity on its restructuring progress and delivery momentum.

Currently, Wall Street analysts expect NIO to report a loss of $0.31 in Q2, flat year-over-year. Also, the company’s revenue for Q2 is expected to rise 13.3% from the prior-year quarter to $2.73 billion.

Is Nio a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Overall, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on NIO stock, based on three Buys, seven Holds, and one Sell assigned in the last three months. The average NIO stock price target of $4.69 implies 7.56% downside potential from current levels.