‘Wow,’ Says Jed Dorsheimer After Mind-Blowing Robotaxi Ride — So Why Isn’t Tesla Stock a Buy Right Now?
Wall Street analyst Jed Dorsheimer steps out of a Tesla Robotaxi—stunned. ‘It’s not just incremental, it’s transformational,’ he admits. Yet Tesla stock stays stuck in neutral. What gives?
The Bull Case: Full Autonomy Equals Full Profit
Robotaxis don’t just drive—they print money. No driver, no overhead, just pure margin. Tesla’s data lead is years wide. Competitors are still mapping streets while Tesla’s fleet learns by the mile.
The Bear Reality: Regulatory Speed Bumps Ahead
Approval doesn’t mean adoption. Insurance liability? Urban infrastructure? Public trust? Each is a hurdle Tesla hasn’t fully cleared. And then there’s the valuation—priced for perfection in an imperfect world.
The Finance Jab: Because Sometimes ‘Disruptive’ Just Means ‘Burning Cash’
Tech breakthroughs wow analysts—quarterly results wow shareholders. Until those two align, even the most dazzling demo is just… a demo. Maybe the market’s waiting for the autonomy to actually arrive before autonomy stocks arrive at new highs.
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That leap has been tested this year. The road hasn’t exactly been smooth for the Elon Musk-led company, as dwindling sales in Q1 and Q2 dragged TSLA’s share price 20% lower. Yet, despite these near-term struggles, many investors remain captivated by the company’s grand vision of a driverless future.
Indeed, visions of robotaxis ferrying vast swaths of the population are enticing, particularly when one considers Tesla’s technology could power much of this massive fleet. The big question, however, is whether this future is truly realistic, at least in terms of a timeframe that is relevant for most everyday investors.
Seeking answers, William Blair’s top analyst, Jed Dorsheimer, recently traveled to Austin to experience Tesla’s robotaxi service firsthand – and he came away highly impressed.
“Wow,” exclaimed the 5-star analyst, who ranks in the top 3% of Wall Street stock pros. “We experienced a glimpse of the future, and it is exciting.”
Dorsheimer praised the rides as “smooth,” “discerning,” “confident,” and “patient.” For him, the comparison was especially striking after test rides in Alphabet’s Waymo, which, in his view, “felt more … robotic.” The implication was clear – Tesla’s user experience could prove a key differentiator in this nascent market.
Beyond performance, Tesla appears intent on competing on service and cost, charging about half the price of Uber rides and leveraging technology that Dorsheimer believes will scale more cheaply than rivals. His projections suggest Tesla could command ~35% of a $1.4 trillion market by 2040.
Even so, Dorsheimer tempers his Optimism with caution. Near-term pressures loom, including the elimination of the $7,500 EV consumer tax credit and the loss of CAFE fines – a mechanism that allowed Tesla to book $2.8 billion in regulatory credit revenue last year, about 16% of gross profit.
Valuation is another sticking point. With TSLA trading at nearly 100x his 2026 EBITDA estimates – versus 20x–25x for sector peers – Dorsheimer expects multiple contraction ahead.
“Despite our enthusiasm for robotaxi, we acknowledge there is a period of margin headwinds to endure from pending regulatory cuts as part of the OBBB,” the analyst summed up, assigning TSLA a Market Perform (i.e., Neutral) rating. (To watch Dorsheimer’s track record, click here)
Wall Street more broadly paints a similarly restrained picture. With 14 Buys, 15 Holds, and 8 Sells, Tesla carries a consensus Hold rating. Its 12-month average price target of $307.23 suggests shares have a 10% downside from current levels. (See)
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