McDonald’s Stock (MCD) Sizzles to New Highs as Analysts Chew Over ’Calculated Risk’ Strategy

Golden Arches Defy Gravity While Wall Street Chews the Fat

MCD's Bull Run: More Than Just Happy Meals

McDonald's shares are cooking with gas—hitting record highs while analysts still debate whether the company's aggressive expansion qualifies as genius or madness. The stock's relentless climb makes traditional portfolio managers look like they're moving in slow motion.

Behind the Beef: Digital Transformation & Global Dominance

Forget flipping burgers—MCD's flipping the script on traditional retail investing. Their digital loyalty programs and global supply chain optimizations are delivering numbers that would make any crypto project jealous. Meanwhile, legacy analysts keep crunching the same stale numbers while missing the real recipe for growth.

Financial Purists Still Miss the Point

While the suits debate 'calculated risks,' MCD's stock performance speaks for itself—sometimes the market rewards those who actually understand consumer behavior instead of just reading balance sheets. Another reminder that sometimes the best investments are right in front of your nose—or in this case, right under the golden arches.

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Earlier this week MCD announced that it will reintroduce its Extra Value Meals starting September 8. The company noted that the deals are meant to make meals more affordable while traffic at many chains remains soft.

Financial Pinch

The options include the Sausage McMuffin with Egg, Sausage Egg and Cheese McGriddle, Egg McMuffin, and any McCrispy Sandwich. McDonald’s said the meals save customers about 15% compared with ordering items one by one. A crucial difference in a time when consumers are feeling the financial pinch.

At a dinner hosted by MCD’s chairman and chief executive Chris Kempczinski and CFO Ian Borden, it was clear that recapturing its value leadership was a key reason for making the changes.

Lauren Silberman, analyst at Deutsche Bank was present at the dinner but did not mention whether any of the new value meals were on the table. She did say though that McDonald’s management expects its “baseline traffic to offset the value investments by the first quarter of 2026.”

That WOULD be a huge boost for the company whose sales have been under pressure over the last few years.

In layman’s terms that means more people coming into the stores offsetting the cost of the price cuts in the longer term.  

Franchise Hazard

Other costs include marketing and temporarily supporting franchisees to ensure the success of these new initiatives.

“We continue to believe MCD is well positioned for outperformance and market share gains given its unmatched scale, share of voice, marketing firepower, willingness to invest and healthy franchisees, all of which enable the brand to implement efforts that would likely be NEAR impossible for peers,” Silberman said. She has a Buy rating and a $355 price target.

Chris O’Cull of Stifel has a Hold rating and $315.76 price target. He said that the timing of the new promotions is strategic, coinciding with anticipated inflationary pressures from tariffs and back-to-school spending.

He said that the MOVE is expected to result in lower franchise revenues in 3Q and 4Q25, but is not projected to materially impact profit guidance.

“The company did not test these changes or develop a business case beforehand, making this a calculated risk. Management also acknowledged the moral hazard of this program—franchisees becoming reliant on corporate support if their pricing diverges from consumer expectations,” O’Cull said.

Is MCD a Good Stock to Buy Now?

On TipRanks, MCD has a Moderate Buy consensus based on 14 Buy, 13 Hold and 2 Sell ratings. Its highest price target is $373. MCD stock’s consensus price target is $329.73, implying a 4.18% upside.