XRP Price Prediction: Will October 2025 See $10 Surge or Drop Below $3?

XRP faces its ultimate test as October 2025 approaches—will it rocket to double digits or crash back to earth?

The $10 Dream

Market optimists point to regulatory clarity finally cutting through the fog of legal uncertainty. Institutional adoption bypasses traditional banking bottlenecks while retail FOMO fuels parabolic moves that defy conventional valuation models. Liquidity flows from traditional finance—always late to the party but bringing serious capital when they arrive.

The $3 Reality Check

Skeptics see resistance levels stacking up like unpaid SEC fines. Macroeconomic headwinds could slam crypto markets just as XRP tests key psychological barriers. Trading volume patterns suggest speculative heat rather than organic growth—another case of finance professionals chasing momentum without understanding the technology.

October's verdict won't just define XRP's trajectory—it'll test whether cryptocurrency can actually deliver on its decade-old promises or just serve as expensive betting slips for Wall Street's bored gamblers.

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SEC Weighs the First XRP Spot ETF

By late October, the SEC must deliver a final verdict on multiple spot XRP ETF applications from issuers like Bitwise, Grayscale, and 21Shares. Unlike previous delays, this time the regulator is running out of extensions.

An approval would mark a watershed moment. Just as Bitcoin’s ETF opened the floodgates for institutional money, an XRP ETF would give both funds and retail investors a way in without touching crypto exchanges. With XRP’s market cap smaller than Bitcoin’s was at its ETF debut, inflows could have an outsized effect on price.

A rejection, however, WOULD sting. The SEC has a long history of caution with crypto products, and XRP’s legal baggage may still weigh on the decision. Traders know the risk, but many are betting approval will finally materialize.

Ripple Seeks a Banking License

Alongside the ETF deadline, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is set to rule on Ripple’s bid for a national banking charter. If approved, Ripple would stand shoulder to shoulder with federally regulated trust banks in the United States.

Such recognition would give Ripple a level of legitimacy few crypto firms enjoy, unlocking new doors for enterprise partnerships and cross-border settlement. Bulls argue this could be the spark that propels XRP into double-digit territory, a roughly 3.5x MOVE from current levels.

But the hurdles are real. National charters are granted only after strict reviews of management, capital, and compliance. Ripple may be stronger after its SEC win, but it still faces scrutiny from regulators and competition from established financial firms.

Bulls Dream, But Risks Remain

Optimists see everything lining up at once. The ETF approval plus the banking license could cement XRP as the most institutionally credible altcoin on the market, fueling a rally toward $10 and beyond.

Yet both outcomes are uncertain. A rejection or delay could send XRP sliding back toward key support at $2.60, erasing months of progress. And even if approvals come through, execution matters. Ripple must prove it can scale adoption fast enough to justify the hype.

At the time of writing, XRP is sitting at $3.0246.