FedEx (FDX) Q1 Earnings Drop Imminent - Here’s What Wall Street’s Bracing For

All eyes turn to Memphis as the logistics giant prepares to unveil its quarterly performance.

The Numbers Game

Analysts project revenue figures that'll either justify the stock's recent volatility or send traders scrambling. Operating margins take center stage—every basis point counts when fuel costs bite and global demand wobbles.

Market Sentiment Check

Investors aren't just watching dollars—they're hunting for clues about global trade health. FedEx moves more than packages; it moves markets when it speaks.

Whisper numbers suggest some analysts already priced in the typical post-earnings slump—because nothing says 'efficient markets' like guessing which way the hamster wheel spins next.

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Meanwhile, revenue is projected to $21.67 billion, reflecting a 0.4% increase compared to the prior-year quarter. Despite subdued revenues, FedEx’s earnings are expected to rise due to the company’s aggressive cost reduction initiatives.

Analysts’ Views Ahead of FedEx’s Q1 FY26 Earnings

Recently, Goldman Sachs analyst Jordan Alliger lowered his price target for FedEx stock to $276 from $290 and reiterated a Buy rating. Alliger stated that near-term forecasting is currently challenging due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their potential impacts on global trade. The 4-star analyst thinks that domestic package volume likely “ebbed” as the company progressed through the fiscal first quarter, with the pull-forward in demand waning. However, he thinks that B2B volumes remained “fairly static at best” in the quarter.

Aside from tariffs, headwinds related to the end of de minimis exemptions led Alliger to lower his Q1 FY26 EPS forecast to $3.50 from $3.75 and adopt a more cautious stance on earnings for the remainder of the calendar year. For FY26, Alliger now projects EPS of $18.00, down from the previous estimate of $18.80.

Meanwhile, Bank of America analyst Ken Hoexter downgraded FedEx stock to Hold from Buy, citing increased pressure on volumes and costs following the end of de minimis exemptions for shipments from China, Hong Kong, and the rest of the world.

Hoexter highlighted that the end of de minimis exemptions will impact international shipments, which represent approximately 16% of rival United Parcel Service’s (UPS) revenues and 17% of FedEx’s top line. The analyst lowered his Q1 FY26, full-year FY26, and FY27 EPS by 7%, 6%, and 7%, respectively, citing de minimis volume and margin pressure and sub-seasonal read-throughs from less-than-truckload (LTL) peers.

AI Analyst Is Cautious on FDX Stock Ahead of Q1 Print

Interestingly, TipRanks’ AI Analyst has assigned an Outperform rating to FedEx stock with a price target of $252, indicating 10.6% upside potential. TipRanks’ AI analysis reflects the company’s strong financial performance and effective cost management efforts. Moreover, FDX stock’s valuation is attractive, with a low P/E ratio and a solid dividend yield.

The positive sentiment from the earnings call further supports the AI analyst’s favorable rating, despite ongoing trade challenges. However, technical analysis shows mixed signals, indicating potential short-term volatility.

Options Traders Anticipate a Major Move on FedEx’s Q1 Earnings

Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings MOVE is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.

Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting about an 8.1% move in either direction in FDX stock in reaction to Q1 FY26 results.

Is FedEx Stock a Sell or Buy?

Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on FedEx stock based on 16 Buys, four Holds, and two Sell recommendations. The average FDX stock price target of $266.59 indicates 17% upside potential from current levels.