Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech & Walmart Earnings: The Crypto Market’s Make-or-Break Week Ahead

Brace for impact—Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks could send Bitcoin either soaring or tumbling. Meanwhile, Walmart’s earnings will reveal whether Main Street’s spending power can keep up with inflation’s relentless grind.

Fed whispers meet retail reality. Powell’s speech—always a volatility catalyst—lands as traders debate whether the Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ mantra still holds water. Any dovish hint? Expect altcoins to moon on pure hopium.

Walmart as economic canary. The retail giant’s numbers don’t just move stodgy old stocks—they’re a proxy for whether consumers are tapped out. Spoiler: They probably are, but Wall Street will spin it as ‘resilience’ anyway.

Pro tip: Watch stablecoin flows post-Powell. Nothing screams ‘institutional fear’ like USDC suddenly pumping into exchanges. Bonus cynicism: If Powell mentions ‘transitory’ again, drink every time a crypto influencer claims QE is coming back.

One more for the road

In 2018, Jerome Powell addressed the Jackson Hole symposium for the first time as Fed chair, outlining his views on the key variables that central bankers wrestle with, elucidating his non-economist's view on the most technical aspects of monetary policy.

In the intervening seven years, Powell has proven himself to be more of a pragmatist than a theoretician as he navigated 2018's false start on rate hikes, the COVID pandemic, the 2022 inflation shock, and the still-incomplete rate-cutting cycle that kicked off over a year ago.

"The time has come for policy to adjust," Powell said last August.

Rate cuts from the Fed in September, November, and December of last year have been on pause since. Growing dissent among his colleagues on the FOMC — and months of more forceful commentary from the WHITE House — has seen Powell end up right where he stood a year ago.

In his 2018 speech, Powell spoke at length about Alan Greenspan's decisions in the mid-90s to hold off on rate hikes, lauding the former Fed chair's "wait and see" approach and foretelling a preference to wait that has defined much of Powell's tenure.

"Given what the economy has shown us over the past 15 years, the need for the sort of risk‑management approach that originated in the new-economy era is clearer than ever before," Powell said at the time. Barring the Fed's quick actions in March 2020, this line explains much of Powell's approach.

As Powell gets set to end his time leading the Fed, the president has bestowed on him a nickname: "Too Late."

"The diversity of views on the FOMC is one of the great virtues of our system," Powell said. "Despite differing views on these questions and others, we have a long institutional tradition of finding common ground in coalescing around a policy stance."

In a year, a new Fed chair will address the crowd at Jackson Hole. Interest rates will likely be lower. But how this new chair views these tenets of central banking will be the more important answer for the future of the Federal Reserve.

Retail's tale

Retail sales ROSE 0.5% in July following a 0.9% jump in June.

Economic data indicates US consumer spending has stabilizedafter tariff-related surprises this spring. How this information comes through in earnings reports scheduled for the week ahead will be one of the week's defining themes.

Walmart's results Thursday morning, given the retailer's sheer size, will offer the broadest canvas for investors to work from.

The company said in May that consumers remained "choiceful," with the company seeing growth across all income cohorts. Three months later, any signs of more confident spending will be welcomed by investors.

Wall Street expects its US same-store sales rose 4% in its fiscal second quarter, according to Bloomberg data. In its fiscal first quarter, same-store sales rose 4.5% in the US. Walmart stock has gained over 10% this year, outperforming the S&P 500 by roughly a percentage point.

At Target, questions over the company's leadership loom with shares of the retailer down over 20% this year. Home Depot, meanwhile, is navigating a US housing market some commentators have said is in recession, though interest rates have pointed to potential signs of a thaw in the coming months.

Single-stock stories always stand at the ready to push around markets. Earnings from Nvidia on Aug. 27 will be another in this genre.

But last week's market action showed investors starting to MOVE past the daily headlines in an indication of a market finding firmer footing.

"The bull market for stocks continued this week, and we’ve even seen some rotation out of the year’s biggest winners into beaten down laggards like Health Care and homebuilders," Bespoke Investment Group wrote in its weekly letter to clients.

"When momentum names stall or sell-off, it can really hit the major indices hard if no other areas of the market are there to pick up the slack, but this week, the year’s worst performers finally saw some buying interest as investors rotated across the market instead of out of it."

Like most things in modern life, the stock market story remains defined by easily digestible ideas like "Sell America" or acronymic memes like TACO. But the S&P 500 hit a record high this week. Twice. The absence of euphoric feelings from the investor class is another way to stamp this rally with a clean bill of health.

And while the market has been driven by Big Tech and the AI trade, this week's market rotation shows investors acting on another one of the society's defining themes in 2025 — everybody gets a turn.

Economic and earnings calendar

Monday

NAHB homebuilder sentiment, August (34 expected, 33 previously)

Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Blink Charging (BLNK)

Tuesday

Housing starts, July (-2.4% expected, +4.6% previously); Building permits, July (-0.2% expected, -0.1% previously)

Home Depot (HD), XPeng (XPEV), Medtronic (MDT), Amer Sports (AS), Toll Brothers (TOL), La-Z-Boy (LZB)

Wednesday

FOMC Minutes, July 30-31 meeting; MBA weekly mortgage applications (+10.9% previously)

Target (TGT), Baidu (BIDU), Lowe's (LOW), TJX Companies (TJX), Estée Lauder (EL)

Thursday

Initial jobless claims, week of Aug. 16 (224,000 previously); S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, August preliminary (49.8 previously); S&P Global US services PMI, August preliminary (55.7 previously); Existing home sales, July (-0.8% expected, -2.7% previously)

Walmart (WMT), Intuit (INTU), Workday (WDAY), Ross Stores (ROST), Zoom (ZM)

Friday

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Buckle (BKE)