HBAR Stalls Before Hedera Upgrade—Bullish Breakout or Bearish Trap?

Hedera's native token shows exhaustion as network upgrade looms—traders brace for volatility.

Key Levels to Watch

HBAR's 20% pullback from July highs tests key support at $0.18. A hold here could signal accumulation before Hedera's consensus mechanism overhaul.

Upgrade Catalyst

The 'Hedera 3.0' hard fork promises faster finality and improved staking rewards—classic make-or-break moment for any Layer 1. Market makers appear cautious despite the bullish fundamentals.

Macro Headwinds

Crypto markets face pressure from Fed rate uncertainty. HBAR's underperformance versus BTC this month suggests weak hands exiting—or smart money building positions quietly.

Closing Thought

Another 'sell the news' event? Perhaps. But in a world where Dogecoin gets ETF rumors, betting against enterprise-grade blockchain might be the real joke.

HBAR Rally Falters as Traders Lose Confidence

Readings from the HBAR/USD one-day chart show that the altcoin posted significant gains between July 9 and July 20. During that period, HBAR’s value rocketed by 59%.

However, over the past three days, this bullish momentum has stalled. While the token has recorded a modest 2% spike in price over the past 24 hours, it is accompanied by a 34% decline in trading volume.

This forms a negative divergence that usually precedes short-term corrections.

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When an asset’s price climbs while trading volume falls, it suggests weakening conviction behind the move, as fewer participants are driving the price higher. This negative divergence signals that HBAR’s rally over the past day merely mirrors the broader market growth and may not be sustainable in the short term.

Moreover, HBAR’s Balance of Power (BoP) indicator has flipped negative, confirming the waning demand and negative shift in trader sentiment. As of this writing, this momentum indicator stands at -0.57. 

The BoP indicator measures the strength of buyers versus sellers in the market, helping to identify momentum shifts. When its value is negative, sellers dominate the market over buyers and put downward pressure on the price. 

Can the Upgrade Save HBAR From Sliding Below $0.26?

As the market prepares for the mainnet upgrade, attention will turn to whether the network improvements can boost HBAR’s price action or if the market has already priced in the news. If this is the case and demand remains muted post-upgrade, HBAR’s price could break below $0.26 and fall to $0.22.

However, if the altcoin witnesses a resurgence in buy-side pressure, it could push its price above resistance at $0.29.