Bitcoin’s Christmas Rally: Can It Defy Gravity or Crash to $80,000?

Bitcoin faces its annual holiday stress test. The question on every trader's screen: rally or reversal?

The Bull Case: Seasonal Tailwinds

History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. The crypto market has a noted tendency for year-end momentum. Call it portfolio rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting ending, or just pure festive speculation—liquidity patterns shift. This time, the macro backdrop adds spice. Traditional finance's creeping embrace of digital assets creates a new layer of institutional buy-in that wasn't there a few Decembers ago.

The Bear Trap: Gravity at $80,000

Then there's the other side of the coin. Every parabolic move invites a correction. The $80,000 level isn't just a random number—it represents a key psychological and technical support zone that would signify a healthy cooldown from recent highs. It's the price point where overleveraged longs get liquidated and weak hands fold. A drop here wouldn't break the long-term thesis; it would simply reset the board for the next leg up. After all, what's a 30% dip in crypto but a Tuesday? (And a chance for Wall Street to pretend they discovered 'value investing'.)

The Verdict: Volatility is the Only Guarantee

Forget predicting the exact path. The real story is the clash of narratives. On one side, the bullish structural shift toward digital gold. On the other, the immutable law of markets: what goes up must occasionally take a breather. Whether Santa delivers a rally or a lump of coal, one outcome is certain—the charts won't be boring. Just remember, in crypto, the most expensive lesson is believing your own hype.

Bitcoin Risks Crash To $80,000

Crypto analyst RBswingtrader shared a Bitcoin market outlook on X the day before Christmas, outlining multiple scenarios that could determine whether the cryptocurrency resumes an upward trend or faces further downside. The analyst noted that smart money is currently buying Bitcoin in a new zone and also cautioned that a final price crash, potentially driven by market manipulation, could occur before a trend reversal. 

According to his analysis, bitcoin could still decline to a fresh local low around $80,000 before strong buyers enter the market. The analyst stressed the importance of patience, viewing this potential dip as part of a broader accumulation strategy. 

He shared a chart highlighting BTC trading under a declining orange Moving Average (MA) after a sharp selloff from the $108,519 resistance zone.  The analyst noted that the cryptocurrency’s price had previously failed at the upper range and rolled over into a strong downtrend that has persisted for weeks. 

RBswingtrader further pinpointed a clear Elliott Wave structure on the BTC chart, with waves labeled from one through five, followed by an ABC corrective pattern. Wave 3 accelerated Bitcoin’s selloff, while Wave 5 appears to be developing, with downside targets still open. Multiple key support levels were also highlighted, including $87,106, $86,169, and $83,986. 

The analyst warned that a deeper breakdown from these support levels could open the door to a potential crash toward $80,427, with an extended lower target NEAR $74,185 if Bitcoin’s selling pressure intensifies. He also plotted multiple Fibonacci retracement levels that align with the lower support zones for the BTC price.  

Notably, the volume data at the bottom of the chart indicates a large accumulation trend through December. Increased trading activity supports the view that large players are taking advantage of dips and building positions despite Bitcoin’s weak price action. 

Is A Christmas Rally Still Possible For BTC?

In RBswingtrader’s chart, a potential Christmas rally for Bitcoin was illustrated with an upward projection targeting the $108,519 region if the price recovers from its current lows. The chart indicated that growing accumulation volume this December and the Bullish Divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) could support upward momentum. 

RBswingtrader also noted that reclaiming key technical levels, including the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement near $96,690-$96,836, could support Bitcoin’s potential upward move. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $87,669.