Bitcoin’s 2025 Close Below $100,000: Why This Price Level Spells Trouble

Bitcoin stumbles into the new year with a whimper, not a bang. The bell just rang on 2025, and the flagship cryptocurrency failed to secure a critical psychological and technical threshold. Closing below $100,000 isn't just a missed milestone—it's a red flag flapping in the digital wind.

The Gravity of the Six-Figure Fail

For months, analysts chattered about the six-figure barrier as an inevitability. Institutional adoption narratives, ETF inflows, and halving math all pointed skyward. A year-end close above that mark was supposed to cement a new era of valuation. Falling short resets the conversation entirely. It signals that even the most bullish macro tailwinds have their limits when confronted with real-world selling pressure and the kind of risk aversion that makes traditional finance guys clutch their pearls—and their bond portfolios.

Technical Damage and Narrative Erosion

Beyond the headline number, a close below such a heavily touted level inflicts tangible technical harm. Key moving averages are now overhead resistance, not support. Momentum indicators that were primed for a breakout have likely rolled over. Perhaps more damaging is the hit to the story. The 'digital gold' and 'inflation hedge' thesis takes a knock when the asset can't hold a round number in a year it was supposed to own. It gives ammunition to the skeptics who still view crypto as a casino, albeit one with fancier jargon than 'leverage' and 'derivatives'—terms their own hedge funds are built on.

A Sobering Start Demands a Sharper Focus

This isn't a death knell. Bitcoin has weathered far worse. But it is a stark reminder that price discovery is a brutal, sentiment-driven game. The path to higher valuations just got steeper, littered with the doubts of shaken believers and the quiet smiles of short-sellers. For the crypto faithful, the mission for 2026 is clear: rebuild momentum, reclaim the narrative, and prove that this stumble was just that—a trip on the march to a higher high. The market's patience, much like a VC's runway, isn't infinite.

3-Month Bearish Engulfing Points To Weakness

Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the 3-month candlestick timeframe shows the cryptocurrency just printed a large bearish engulfing candle that fully overtook the prior quarterly advance. This type of candle is rare on such a high timeframe and typically points to a decisive shift in control from buyers to sellers.

The chart shared by Greeny shows that this engulfing structure formed after bitcoin failed to hold above its 2025 highs above $120,000 in October, and this shows that the year ended in distribution. 

Interestingly, $106,700 is now an important level moving forward because it corresponds with the bottom of the previous 3-month candle. With Bitcoin now trading below that zone, it flips from support into a heavy resistance area for price action in Q1. Any recovery attempt in early 2026 WOULD need to reclaim this level convincingly to avoid further rejection. 

Furthermore, the stochastic level near $108,000 is another important level to look at for Bitcoin’s price action in Q1 2026. According to Greeny, if the bitcoin price closes below this zone after the first quarter, it would indicate continued downside pressure. Together, these levels form a tight ceiling overhead, meaning even strong relief rallies could struggle to transition into sustainable uptrends as we move into the new year.

Bitcoin 3-month Candlestick Price Chart: @greenytrades on X

Stochastic Exhaustion Points To A Possible Cycle Peak

Another concerning element of Greeny’s analysis centers on the stochastic indicator. According to the analyst, this is the first time in Bitcoin’s history that the stochastic has reached the 80th percentile on the 3-month timeframe. This is otherwise notable because this is a zone generally associated with exhaustion and a local or bull cycle top. 

The chart also shows the red moving average crossing above the blue while sitting well below the stochastic band, a configuration Greeny interprets as confirmation of a local top. This setup is likely pointing to the end of the current bull cycle and will only be invalidated if Bitcoin manages to close above $108,000 by the end of March.

Liquidity conditions across the entire crypto market tightened through late 2025 as the Central Bank of Japan maintained higher interest rates. This has led to Bitcoin underperforming compared to other notable assets, while precious metals such as gold and silver pushed to new price highs.