Bitcoin Price To Crash Another 50% As Analyst Marks $40,000 Bottom Target: The Bear Case Gains Traction
Bitcoin's bull run hits a wall of skepticism as analysts paint a starkly different picture—one where the digital gold loses half its current value.
The $40,000 Floor—Or Trap Door?
Forget the moon-shot predictions. A growing chorus of market observers is mapping a path downward, with a prominent analyst pinpointing $40,000 as the ultimate bottom target. That's a gut-wrenching 50% plunge from recent highs. The rationale? A perfect storm of macroeconomic headwinds, over-leveraged positions, and that classic crypto-cycle fatigue.
Technical Breakdown or Sentiment Shakedown?
Charts are flashing red. Key support levels have crumbled like a stale cookie, and trading volume suggests more hands are hitting the sell button than the buy. This isn't just a dip—it's a potential trend reversal that has even the most hardened HODLers checking their portfolio balances twice. The fear isn't of missing out anymore; it's of getting wiped out.
The Institutional Chill Factor
Remember all that warm institutional money that was supposed to be a one-way bet? Turns out, pension funds and asset managers have stop-loss orders too. Their retreat from risk assets is creating a vacuum of demand just as retail sentiment sours. It's the kind of liquidity crunch that makes previous corrections look like practice runs.
A Necessary Purge or The End of an Era?
Every major crypto winter has served a purpose—shaking out weak projects and overconfident speculators. A drop to $40k would undoubtedly be brutal, but some argue it's the cleanse the market needs to build a healthier foundation for the next cycle. Of course, that's cold comfort if you're buying your Lamborghini on margin. It's the ultimate test of conviction: will you average down or tap out?
The narrative is shifting. The question is no longer 'when do we hit $100k?' but 'how low can we go?' In a market fueled by belief, the sudden embrace of a $40,000 bottom target is more than a prediction—it's a psychological trigger. Buckle up; volatility just got a promotion. And as any Wall Street veteran will tell you with a smirk, the market's job is to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of people.
Bitcoin Price Set For 50% Crash
Bitcoin could face another price correction as technical indicators continue to signal a strong bear market. Market expert CryptoBullet warns that Bitcoin’s bear market behavior is not over, with a deeper pullback aligning with long-term on-chain trends.
CryptoBullet bases his outlook on Bitcoin’s Realized Price, a metric that reflects the average price at which all circulating coins last moved. He explained that this level acts as a key reference during bear markets and has historically marked zones where price eventually breaks down before forming a bottom.
Looking at past cycles, he noted that Bitcoin has consistently fallen below its Realized Price during bear markets. The drawdowns reached 66% in 2011, 48% in 2015, 35% in 2018, and 33% in 2022, indicating a consistent tendency for prices to fall below this level. Due to this repeated decline, the analyst believes the next bear-market crash will follow the same pattern, triggering a 50% drop to $40,000 for Bitcoin this year.
Another major factor supporting CryptoBullet’s analysis is Bitcoin’s declining volatility over time. He noted that the gap between market price and Realized Price has steadily narrowed, shrinking from a 66% deviation in 2011 to roughly 33% in 2022.
Because of this trend, the analyst does not expect the bear market this year to be as severe as the downside observed in past cycles. Instead, he estimates bitcoin could fall by 24% to 31% below Realized Price, placing its likely bottom in the $40,000 to $43,000 range.
Extreme Bear Market Scenario
With the Realized Price currently near $56,000, CryptoBullet has also cautioned that Bitcoin could decline even further to below $40,000 this year. The analyst noted that if the market repeats the 2022 bear market, a 33% drop below Realized Price WOULD place Bitcoin near $37,400.
He added that by the third quarter or fourth quarter of 2026, Realized Price could fall deeper to $53,000 or $54,000, which could result in a similar 33% crash, pushing Bitcoin closer to $35,000. The analyst has stated that $35,000 represents the most extreme downside he can reasonably see this year based on historical behavior. The accompanying chart also reflects this view by highlighting previous bear-market crashes that occurred after the price slipped well below the Realized Price line.
