Cogna (COGN3) Surges 16% This Week as UBS BB and JP Morgan Turn Bullish – What’s Next in 2026?

• Why Is COGN3 Outperforming the Ibovespa?
• UBS BB’s 2026-2027 Forecast: Revenue and Profit Catalysts
• JP Morgan’s Bombshell: A R$6.50 Target for December 2026
• Regulatory Risks: The Elephant in the Classroom
• FAQs: Your COGN3 Cheat Sheet

Cogna Educação’s stock (COGN3) is on fire this week, rallying over 16% after UBS BB and JP Morgan upgraded their outlooks. UBS sees a 13% upside to its R$4 target, while JP Morgan slapped a "buy" rating with a R$6.50 price target for December 2026. The Optimism stems from projected revenue growth, Vasta’s consolidation, and improved cash flow. But regulatory risks in distance learning linger. Here’s the breakdown.

Why Is COGN3 Outperforming the Ibovespa?

Cogna’s shares (COGN3) jumped 2.82% to R$3.64 by midday Friday, briefly topping the Ibovespa’s gainers with a 5.37% intraday spike. The stock’s weekly 16.3% surge reflects bullish analyst notes. UBS BB called current valuations "fair" post-2025’s 240% rally, noting COGN3 trades at just 8x P/E—a 27% discount to the Ibovespa. "There’s room for repricing," said UBS analysts Andre Salles and team, though they kept a "neutral" rating. Meanwhile, JP Morgan upgraded COGN3 to "buy," citing 2026 revenue growth potential. TradingView data shows COGN3’s RSI nearing overbought territory at 68, so profit-taking could loom.

UBS BB’s 2026-2027 Forecast: Revenue and Profit Catalysts

UBS projects Cogna’s net revenue will grow 0.5% in 2026-2027, fueled by Kroton’s higher ticket prices and Vasta’s new bilingual school contracts. Full consolidation of Vasta post-OPA (public tender offer) should boost net profit to R$910 million in 2026 (+2% YoY) and R$1.1 billion in 2027 (+5%). Cash Flow conversion could hit 94% (from 86%) as Kroton’s student financing programs wind down and Saber’s B2G sales kick in. "These gains offset higher net interest expenses post-OPA," UBS noted. Still, the BTCC team warns: "Education stocks are cyclical—watch enrollment trends."

JP Morgan’s Bombshell: A R$6.50 Target for December 2026

JP Morgan’s upgrade stole headlines, with a R$6.50 target implying 79% upside from current levels. The bank expects Cogna to lead sector revenue growth in 2026, outpacing rivals Yduqs (YDUQ3) and Ânima (ANIM3). "Vasta’s K-12 segment and Kroton’s EAD pivot are underappreciated," their report said. But skeptics point out COGN3’s 2025 rally already prices in much of this—hence UBS’ caution. "It’s a battleground stock now," quipped one BTCC trader.

Regulatory Risks: The Elephant in the Classroom

UBS flagged distance-learning regulations as a key risk, particularly for nursing and teaching degrees—Cogna’s Core EAD offerings. New rules could delay growth, though JP Morgan argues the sell-off is overdone. "Cogna’s diversified model (Kroton + Vasta) provides a hedge," they wrote. For investors, the question is whether 2026 growth justifies today’s multiples. As one analyst joked, "Education stocks need top marks in patience."

FAQs: Your COGN3 Cheat Sheet

What’s driving Cogna’s stock surge?

Analyst upgrades (UBS BB and JP Morgan), Vasta’s consolidation, and 2026 revenue projections.

Is COGN3 overbought after a 16% weekly gain?

TradingView’s RSI at 68 suggests short-term caution, but JP Morgan’s R$6.50 target implies further upside.

What are the biggest risks?

Regulatory changes in distance education and slower-than-expected cash flow conversion.