Bitcoin Flashes Red MACD: Brace for a Major Price Swing
Bitcoin's MACD just painted the town red—and traders are scrambling to decode what comes next.
Technical alarm bells ringing
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator—crypto's favorite momentum gauge—just crossed into bearish territory. No crystal ball needed: history shows these crosses often precede 15-20% moves within weeks.Wall Street's 'risk managers' will claim they saw this coming—right after it happens, of course.
Bulls and bears are now locked in a showdown at the $60K psychological level. Break below? Watch for liquidation cascades. Hold? Another leg up toward all-time highs could be brewing.
One thing's certain: volatility's back on the menu. Buckle up.
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The monthly MACD histogram for Bitcoin
$88,843 turned red in November, indicating a significant shift in the cryptocurrency‘s long-term technical indicators. This pattern has historically marked the onset of major bear markets since 2012. With Bitcoin’s price dropping over 17% in November, the indicator dipped below the zero line, confirming a transition from a bullish to a bearish trend.
Do Historical Indicators Point to a Correction?
The negative turn of the MACD histogram in a monthly timeframe has historically coincided with the end of bull cycles in Bitcoin. During the final quarter of 2021, when the price fell from $70,000 to $50,000, a similar signal predicted a lasting decline at the beginning of 2022. This indicator also activated before the deepening of bear markets in 2018 and 2014. Technical analysts state that these “bearish crossover” signals are among the most reliable momentum indicators confirming a change in price direction.
Nonetheless, past performance does not guarantee future results. Analysts emphasize that macroeconomic risks may support the signal’s potential to affirm the downward trend. Despite expectations of a Fed rate cut, Japan’s financial pressures, a strong dollar index, and Treasury bond yields decrease risk appetite. Recent outflows from spot ETFs further reinforce the bearish scenario.
Critical Technical Levels for Bitcoin
The first support level in the technical outlook is around the trend line at $84,500. If this level is breached, analysts consider $74,500 and the 2021 peak of $70,000 as possible pullback regions. Market participants also warn of the potential for increased volatility.
Meanwhile, the largest altcoin, Ethereum
$2,909, is not showing a positive picture either. In the technical chart, the 50-day simple moving average falling below the 200-day average has confirmed the classic “death cross” formation. This formation typically indicates that short-term momentum has fallen behind the long-term trend. Historically, in the ethereum market, these intersections have not always led to a sustained decline.
