XRP Defies the Odds: Binance Reserves Plunge to Six-Month Low Amid Market Turbulence

While the rest of the crypto market flinches, XRP is holding its ground. A surprising divergence is playing out on the world's largest exchange.

The Great Exodus

Binance's XRP reserves just hit their lowest point in half a year. That's a massive withdrawal of liquidity from a major trading hub. Normally, this kind of exodus spells trouble—it signals a loss of confidence or a rush for the exits.

But the price chart tells a different story. Instead of collapsing under the selling pressure, XRP's value is showing remarkable resilience. It's not just clinging on; it's actively defying the bearish signal flashing from the exchange's coffers.

This creates a fascinating market puzzle. Who's buying if coins are fleeing Binance? The answer might lie in self-custody wallets or a strategic shift to other platforms. Either way, it suggests a cohort of holders is digging in, not cashing out—a classic sign of long-term conviction over short-term panic.

Of course, in crypto, 'conviction' is often just a fancy word for 'hopium.' But for now, XRP is doing the one thing that drives traditional analysts nuts: it's ignoring the textbook rules. In a sector built on disrupting finance, sometimes the biggest disruption is to its own predictable patterns of fear and greed.

Binance Reserves at a Six-Month Low

Data shared by CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain indicates a decline in XRP balances held in Binance wallets, dropping to approximately 2.66 billion units. The XRP Ledger Exchange Reserve graph suggests that such a low level on the exchange has not been seen since July 2024. This scenario hints at the withdrawal of liquid supply from trading platforms, moving into cold wallets, and subsequently causing a contraction in the amount available for sale.

Historically, sharp declines in exchange reserves have often prepared the ground for stability or rebound rallies in the medium term. When the supply ready for sale declines, even relatively limited buying demand can have a disproportionate impact on the price. Instances during periods of extreme market pessimism have resulted in relief rallies.

Price Testing a Critical Demand Zone

As of the writing of this analysis, XRP is trading around $1.87. The price is gradually testing the strong demand zone in the $1.80–$1.90 range, a region that has previously formed the base of a broad upward structure. Daily indicators, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), hover NEAR the lower band, suggesting a weakening of selling pressure compared to previous weeks. However, a clear confirmation of reversal is yet to be seen.

The weekly chart paints a more deteriorated picture. Since the peak zone between $3.40 and $3.60, successive lower highs and lows have formed. The short-term weekly average has turned downwards, transforming the $2.40–$2.60 range into a strong resistance area. Although long-term averages remain below the price, the loss of momentum in recent months has significantly weakened the medium to long-term structure.

Possible Scenarios: Bounce or Breakdown?

• Bounce from Support: The $1.80–$1.90 band is the last major demand area that bulls need to defend. If weekly closes remain above this area, the contraction in supply on exchanges could strengthen the likelihood of a sharp short-term rebound. The restriction of liquid supply, along with sudden spot purchases and closing squeezed short positions, might boost momentum.
• Downward Breakdown: A significant and sustained breakdown below $1.80 could open the structure to a deeper correction around $1.50.
• Recovery Threshold: Regaining the $2.20–$2.40 band and maintaining it as support is critical for the weekly weakening scenario to have a chance at gradual recovery.

The decline in volume suggests the presence of fatigued sellers rather than new buyers. The simultaneous occurrence of technical pressure and supply contraction indicates that a decision point for XRP is near.