Bitcoin’s Next Peak: Raoul Pal’s 5-Year Cycle Theory Points to 2026
Forget the short-term noise—the real crypto clock ticks in five-year intervals.
Raoul Pal's infamous cycle theory just reset the countdown. According to the macro guru, Bitcoin's next parabolic peak isn't a 2025 story. The math pushes the grand finale to 2026.
The Rhythm of the Market
Markets move in waves, but crypto dances to a louder, more predictable beat. The four-year halving narrative got an upgrade. Pal's framework stretches the timeline, weaving institutional adoption, liquidity cycles, and generational tech shifts into one coherent pattern.
It's not just about block rewards halving. It's about global liquidity faucets turning on, regulatory dams cracking, and a whole new cohort of investors finally getting the memo.
Why 2026 Changes Everything
Pushing the target reshapes the entire playbook. It adds runway. It transforms a frantic sprint into a strategic marathon. For miners, it means more time to upgrade infrastructure before the reward cliff. For traders, it's a lesson in patience over hype.
The theory suggests we're in the accumulation act, not the final bow. The real show—the one that makes headlines and millionaires—is still being staged.
Of course, pinning a date on a decentralized asset is a favorite pastime for financiers who'd otherwise have to explain their own fund's performance. But if the cycle holds, the wait until 2026 could be the most valuable trade of all.
Bitcoin fell 40% while global liquidity went up. Gold rallied. M2 money supply climbed. BTC broke down below $100,000. That wasn’t supposed to happen.
Macro analyst Raoul Pal says the bull market isn’t dead, just delayed. According to a breakdown by analyst Nathan Sloan, Pal argues crypto’s 4-year cycle has stretched into a 5-year cycle, pushing the real peak to 2026.
Because of this, there won’t be a crypto winter this year, but a delayed mega-boom instead.
Why Bitcoin Stopped Following Liquidity
Bitcoin and global M2 have moved together for years. When liquidity rises, BTC rises. The 2020-2021 bull run followed this pattern closely.
This cycle broke that trend. M2 went up. bitcoin went sideways, then down. Investors expecting $200,000 watched BTC slide instead.
“Everyone was expecting super super highs. We got the absolute opposite,” Sloan noted.
The Fed Pushed the Timeline Back
US government debt keeps growing. Interest payments are getting harder to manage. The government needs lower rates to refinance.
But Jerome Powell kept rates high to fight inflation. That delayed the cheap money that usually drives crypto higher.
Bitcoin follows the business cycle. When that cycle stretches, so does crypto’s timeline. The 2025 peak many expected may now arrive in 2026.
Short-Term Crash, Long-Term Boom
Short-term pain and long-term gains can happen together.
In 2019, the Fed ended tightening and started easing. Bitcoin still dropped for six more months before turning around. Liquidity takes time to hit markets.
If that pattern repeats, another 50% drop is possible before the bottom. But once liquidity flows through, the rally could be sharp.
Altcoin season is still expected. It just follows Bitcoin’s lead, so it waits too.
What Comes Next
The next few months matter. A new Fed chair is expected to cut rates. That shift could restart the liquidity engine.
Sloan says Pal’s thesis should get confirmed or rejected by the end of Q1. If the theory holds, the crypto rally was never canceled, just pushed back.
