Bitcoin at $126K? Reality Check: It’s Never Actually Topped $100,000
Forget the hype. The king of crypto has yet to crack the six-figure ceiling.
The Psychological Barrier
Market chatter loves a big, round number. A hundred thousand dollars isn't just a price target—it's a symbol. A trophy. For Bitcoin, it remains the ultimate prize just out of reach, despite the breathless predictions of six-figure valuations that flood social feeds. Every analyst with a chart seems to have a fresh, higher target, while the actual all-time high sits stubbornly below that magic line.
Why the Disconnect?
Speculation runs on futures—both the financial kind and the narrative variety. Price forecasts often leapfrog current reality, fueled by institutional adoption rumors, ETF flows, and macro-economic theories about digital gold. It creates a feedback loop where the expectation of a price becomes news itself, detached from the on-chain data showing where coins actually change hands. Traders, after all, make more money from volatility than stability—even the imagined kind.
The Real Benchmark
Strip away the projections and you're left with a simple, hard fact: Bitcoin's price has never printed a "1" followed by five zeros. Every rally, no matter how parabolic, has peaked before hitting that mark. It's the one metric that separates the dream from the ledger—a reminder that in crypto, as in traditional finance, the gap between a price target and a filled order is where fortunes are made and lost. Sometimes on the same trade.
So, will it happen? Maybe. But until it does, that $100,000 wall stands as the market's ultimate reality check—a number that means more to portfolio managers and headline writers than to the blockchain itself. After all, what's another zero among friends when you're betting against the central banks?
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In brief
- Bitcoin’s peak in 2025, adjusted for inflation, remains under 100,000 dollars.
- The inflationary economy distorts displayed records, masking bitcoin’s true current value.
- Experts denounce a mistaken reading, distant from the original philosophy of cryptocurrencies.
- Alex Thorn’s analysis places bitcoin in a more credible and transparent macroeconomic context.
The false peak of 126,000 $: when inflation catches up with the narrative
Has the BTC price really crossed the mythical six-figure threshold? Not if you adjust for inflation. Alex Thorn, analyst at Galaxy, reminds that the 126,000-dollar peak in October 2025 actually equals 99,848 dollars in constant 2020 dollars.
His analysis relies on the CPI, an index that reflects the gradual loss of purchasing power of the greenback. And this shift is far from negligible: the dollar’s value has dropped by 20% since 2020. The problem is that the media economy works with raw numbers. And the algorithms love that.
Thorn summarizes his thought in a tweet that went viral:
If you adjust bitcoin’s price for inflation using 2020 dollars, BTC has never exceeded $100,000. It actually peaked at $99,848 in 2020 value, if you can believe it.
The economy is distorted, but comparisons remain frozen. bitcoin rises, sure, but in an environment where fiat currency is crumbling, nothing is that simple.
Crypto domestication: Bitcoin facing the old world’s tools
By reintroducing macroeconomic tools into crypto analysis, aren’t we betraying BTC’s original spirit? Inflation, real comparisons, seasonal adjustments… This is exactly what Bitcoin wanted to avoid at its inception.
On X, BitKane doesn’t hide his skepticism:
If we start looking at bitcoin’s price from the angle of “adjustment,” aren’t we simply recreating the same system? Aren’t we, by thinking in terms of seasonal adjustments, becoming the new central bankers?
This unease raises a DEEP tension: between purists, who see bitcoin as a tool of resistance to institutional economy, and those who push for its integration into macro logics.
This debate goes beyond BTC alone. Ethereum, with its increasingly institutional rollups, or stablecoins backed by state currencies, reflect this same dynamic. The whole ecosystem seems to be moving closer to a more structured, less rebellious model.
Inflation economy: normalization accelerates
It is not so much bitcoin that’s booming, but rather the dollar that’s wavering. This disturbing observation is unavoidable in an economy shaken by a cumulative inflation of 24% between 2020 and 2025.
Alex Thorn goes further. For him, 2026 promises to be too chaotic to be predictable. Yet, Galaxy maintains a bullish long-term view, estimating bitcoin could reach 250,000 dollars by the end of 2027, driven by the growing institutionalization of the market.
BTC becomes more mature, its volatilities flatten out, its options diversify. Even its “volatility smile” aligns with that of commodities. Everything seems to indicate that the crypto economy is structuring itself.
But in this quest for recognition, the risk is great: trading freedom for integration. When records are read without filter, we forget that real value is built with context, not just spectacular peaks.
What the numbers don’t always say
- Bitcoin’s peak in 2025: $126,000 (nominal);
- In 2020 value: $99,848;
- Cumulative inflation 2020–2025: +24%;
- Dollar purchasing power: −20% since 2020;
- Current BTC price: 87,320 dollars.
Some will continue to believe it firmly. For them, Bitcoin has crossed the symbolic threshold. Regardless of adjustments. And despite doubts, a segment of enthusiasts already projects a BTC at 180,000 dollars by 2026. The economy divides. So do the numbers.
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