Bitcoin’s Decade-Long Surge: Could 2026 Ignite a 10-Year Bull Run?

Forget the noise—the real question isn't if Bitcoin rallies, but for how long. As 2025 winds down, a seismic shift in market structure suggests the next cycle won't be a mere spike. It could be an era.

The Setup for a Super-Cycle

Institutional adoption has moved from PowerPoints to balance sheets. BlackRock's spot ETF was just the opening act. Sovereign wealth funds and pension managers are now quietly building positions, treating Bitcoin not as a speculative toy but as a non-correlated strategic asset. This creates a demand floor that didn't exist in 2017 or even 2021.

Meanwhile, the supply shock is permanent. The 2024 halving slashed new coin issuance, and with millions of BTC lost or locked in long-term custody, the liquid supply keeps shrinking. It's basic economics: when accelerating demand meets decelerating supply, price isn't the only thing that moves—volatility profiles change, too.

The 2026 Catalyst: Beyond the Charts

Look past the technical analysis. The trigger for a sustained move lies in macro desperation. Central banks, having painted themselves into a corner with debt monetization, will likely flip between inflation-fighting and market-rescuing for years. Each policy pivot erodes faith in traditional stores of value. Bitcoin, with its hard-coded scarcity, becomes the logical escape hatch—a trade that lasts not quarters, but a full business cycle.

Yes, Wall Street will try to package it, slice it, and sell it back to you with a 2% management fee. Some things never change.

A decade-long bull run doesn't mean a straight line up. It means each major dip gets bought faster and at a higher low. It means volatility declines over time as the asset matures. By 2036, the question won't be if Bitcoin is in a bull market, but if it's simply the new normal. The countdown starts now.

In Brief

• Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, states that 2025 marked the end of Bitcoin’s bear market, not its beginning.
• He predicts a potential ten-year bull run, extending until 2035, supported by strong fundamentals.
• Meanwhile, several experts, including Peter Brandt and Jurrien Timmer, anticipate a possible correction in 2026.
• Other voices, such as Phong Le and Matt Hougan, remind that fundamentals remain healthy despite volatility.

Samson Mow Revives the Bullish Thesis

In a message posted on X on December 27, Samson Mow, founder of the bitcoin infrastructure company Jan3, stated that the bear market was already behind us.

“2025 was the bear market,” he wrote, suggesting that the consolidation or price retreat seen this year could actually mark the end of a bearish cycle, rather than its beginning.

He goes even further, mentioning the idea of a coming ten-year bull run, extending until 2035. Analyst PlanC shares this conviction : “if you survived until 2025, then you have been through the bear market”. A way of saying the worst is over, and those who exposed themselves to bitcoin this year should reap the rewards in the next bullish cycle.

For these supporters of an optimistic interpretation, several factors strengthen their thesis, despite the current climate of doubt :

• The price of bitcoin has dropped by 8.98 % since January 1st, currently reaching 87,888 dollars ;

• Over the last 30 days, the decline is 3.29 %, signaling a loss of momentum in a wait-and-see market ;

• Bitcoin is on track to close the year in red, which would be a first in its history ;

• The euphoric forecasts made earlier this year, notably those of Arthur Hayes and Tom Lee, envisioning a BTC at 250,000 dollars, turned out to be largely unrealistic ;

• In response, Mow and his supporters argue a longer-term macroeconomic reading. The current stagnation would be the prelude to a sustainable structural expansion based on network fundamentals and the post-halving context.

This positioning, a minority in a climate dominated by uncertainty, therefore proposes a complete reversal of the dominant narrative. It relies on historical precedents and a strong faith in bitcoin’s resilience, despite declining technical indicators.

2026, the Year of Truth ?

Contrary to this optimistic reading, several renowned analysts warn against premature enthusiasm.

Peter Brandt, a seasoned trader respected for his chart analysis, predicts a fall of bitcoin to 60,000 dollars by the third quarter of 2026. Jurrien Timmer, head of macroeconomic research at Fidelity, also mentions a possible drop in BTC to 65,000 dollars, calling 2026 a year of pause for the asset. These projections rely on a more cyclical market reading and take into account current macroeconomic signals, as well as a possible exhaustion of post-halving dynamics.

Beyond simple price forecasts, it is the market sentiment that triggers concern. Since December 13, the crypto Fear & Greed index has been stuck in the extreme fear zone, reaching a score of 20 out of 100 on December 26.

This anxiety-inducing climate coincides with a continuous drop in the price of the flagship crypto over the last 30 days (-3.29 %), reinforcing the idea that investor confidence is eroding. Yet, some like Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, maintain that fundamentals remain solid despite this pullback period. Last July, Matt Hougan from Bitwise even stated that 2026 WOULD be a year of recovery.

In this climate of uncertainty, interpretations clash. Some bet on a structural recovery, others fear a prolonged retreat. However, as Changpeng Zhao reminds us, it is better to buy in fear, not in euphoria. A principle that 2026 could once again put to the test.

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