Polymarket Bettors Abandon $150,000 Bitcoin Price Target for 2026

The crowd's conviction is cracking.

Where speculative fervor once painted visions of six-figure Bitcoin valuations, the prediction markets now tell a colder story. The once-popular bet that Bitcoin would hit $150,000 by this year has lost its luster on Polymarket, a platform where sentiment gets priced in real-time. It's a stark shift in the collective psyche of crypto's most engaged participants.

The Wisdom of the (Paying) Crowd

Prediction markets don't deal in hope—they deal in capital. When money moves away from a specific outcome, it's not mere skepticism; it's a financial vote of no confidence. The migration of bets away from the $150,000 mark suggests a recalibration of expectations, likely fueled by a cocktail of regulatory headwinds, macroeconomic pressures, or simply the sobering passage of time. It's a classic case of the market efficiently pricing out yesterday's blue-sky optimism, often with the cold precision of a Wall Street quant who just found a more lucrative spreadsheet to stare at.

What the Smart Money Sees

This isn't necessarily a prophecy of doom. It could signal a maturation, a move from hyperbolic price targets to more grounded, achievable milestones. The crowd might be shifting its focus to lower, yet still bullish, thresholds or different catalysts altogether. The narrative is evolving in real-time on the blockchain, bypassing traditional analysts and their delayed reports.

So, the $150,000 dream for 2026? The market's money says it's fading fast—proving once again that in crypto, the most reliable oracle is often the one you have to pay to query.

In brief

• Polymarket bettors estimate a 27% chance that bitcoin will reach $150,000 in 2026.
• Analysts like Bernstein and Grayscale maintain ambitious targets ($150,000 to $200,000), despite macroeconomic risks.
• 2026 could be contradictory, between institutional adoption and bearish BTC scenarios, requiring caution and critical analysis.

Bitcoin in 2026: Polymarket Estimates Only 27% Chance to Reach $150,000 

Data from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, reveals only a 27% probability that bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of 2026. This figure contrasts with expectations of some investors. According to the latest updates, 36% of bettors believe this goal could be achieved by December 2026, but the majority remains skeptical. Meanwhile, 61% of participants think BTC could stay below the symbolic $100,000 mark in 2026.

These figures are set in a context of high volatility. Indeed, after nearly reaching $126,000 in October 2025, bitcoin fell below $90,000 at year-end, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic fluctuations. Analysts at Bernstein and Fundstrat remain optimistic, citing targets between $150,000 and $200,000, while others, like Peter Brandt, do not rule out a bearish scenario at $25,000.

The Impact of Institutional Flows on BTC Volatility in 2026

The year 2026 promises to be a turning point for bitcoin, marked by the growing influence of institutional flows. In this regard, Bitcoin ETFs, now adopted by major financial players, have altered market dynamics. According to Geoff Kendrick, analyst at Standard Chartered, these instruments have made BTC more sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations, such as interest rates or inflation. In 2025, this sensitivity manifested in a 30% drop after the October peak, illustrating the risks linked to this new era.

Additionally, “digital asset treasuries” (DATs), which long supported the market, see their influence waning. ETFs, now pillars of demand, could either stabilize BTC by attracting sustainable capital or amplify its volatility in case of massive withdrawals. Therefore, 2026 will be a year of transition, where bitcoin must prove its resilience against these new challenges. For investors, this means increased vigilance and risk management adapted to an uncertain environment.

Bitcoin Predictions in 2026… Who to Believe?

Predictions for bitcoin in 2026 are more contradictory than ever, especially now as Polymarket bettors only believe in a 25% chance of a $150,000 boom. On one side, institutions like Bernstein and Grayscale maintain ambitious targets, between $150,000 and $200,000. These optimists rely on:

• Growing adoption of ETFs;
• Bitcoin’s scarcity;
• BTC’s historical cycles that suggest a rebound after each major correction. 

On the other hand, models like Elliott Wave analysis predict a very different scenario with a bear market in 2026. Facing these divergences, what should investors do? Strategies vary: some advocate diversification, others rely on technical indicators like the SuperTrend to guide their decisions. One thing is certain: 2026 will be a year to watch closely, where information and prudence will be the best allies.

Bitcoin in 2026 remains a topic of passionate debate. While Polymarket bettors express their skepticism, financial institutions maintain bold forecasts and experts anticipate a historic bull run. In such a volatile market, one question persists: should one follow trends or rely on fundamentals?

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.