Voestalpine Stock: Doubled in a Year! Can the Rally Continue in 2026?
- Why Has Voestalpine’s Stock Skyrocketed?
- How the CBAM Mechanism Reshapes Steel Economics
- Financial Health Check: Mixed Signals?
- Analyst Consensus: More Upside Ahead?
- Restructuring vs. Growth: Walking a Tightrope
- FAQ: Your Voestalpine Questions Answered
Voestalpine's stock has surged over 100% in the past year, now trading NEAR its 52-week high at €38. Driven by new EU trade protections and bullish analyst upgrades, the steel giant faces a pivotal year in 2026. But is this growth sustainable? We break down the CBAM mechanism, import quotas, and restructuring efforts—plus whether now’s the time to buy or sell.
Why Has Voestalpine’s Stock Skyrocketed?
The Austrian steelmaker’s shares have doubled since early 2025, fueled by two game-changing EU policies. First, the, effective January 2026, forces importers to buy CO2 certificates at EU prices—making foreign steel (especially from Asia) significantly pricier. Second, import quotas will halve to 18.3 million tons by July 2026. "This is a structural win for European producers," notes BTCC analyst Liam Chen. "Voestalpine’s margins could expand by 15-20%."
How the CBAM Mechanism Reshapes Steel Economics
Imagine Chinese steel paying the same carbon costs as EU-made steel—that’s CBAM in action. The EU’s carbon price currently hovers around €85/ton, while China’s domestic system averages just €8. Analysts at TradingView estimate this could add €50-€70/ton to import costs. Voestalpine, with its cleaner electric-arc furnaces, stands to gain. "Their CO2 footprint is 30% below the EU average," says UBS’s latest report, which upgraded the stock to "Buy" with a €43 target.
Financial Health Check: Mixed Signals?
H1 2025/26 results showed a 5.6% revenue dip to €7.6B, but EBITDA ROSE to €722M (+3% YoY). Net profit jumped 8.6% to €199M, while net debt hit a 19-year low at €1.5B. However, restructuring pains persist: 340 job cuts and reduced shifts at Kindberg/Mürzzuschlag plants. The US tariff headache lingers too, with pipe sales down 12%. Still, the auto sector (40% of steel sales) could deliver a €100/ton price hike in annual contracts—a potential €400M EBITDA boost.
Analyst Consensus: More Upside Ahead?
JPMorgan (€40.60 target) and UBS (€43) lead the bull camp, citing "pricing power resurgence." But skeptics point to the sky-high P/E of 34.15—double the sector average. "You’re paying for perfect execution," warns a Deutsche Bank note. The next catalyst? Quarterly earnings on February 11, 2026, which should reveal early CBAM impacts.
Restructuring vs. Growth: Walking a Tightrope
CEO Herbert Eibensteiner’s turnaround plan aims to slash €200M in costs by 2027. But with US tariffs biting and auto demand shaky, some investors ask: Is cutting enough? The stock’s 0.89 P/B ratio suggests the market still sees this as a fixer-upper. That said, free cash Flow of €296M leaves room for dividends or M&A.
FAQ: Your Voestalpine Questions Answered
Is Voestalpine stock overvalued at €38?
With a 34 P/E, it’s priced for perfection—but if CBAM delivers as planned, current levels could look cheap in hindsight.
What’s the biggest risk to the rally?
A global steel glut or EU policy delays. China’s export surge remains a wild card.
When should I expect dividend payments?
Historically paid in July, the 2026 payout could reach €1.20/share if margins improve.
