CryptoQuant Sounds Alarm: Bitcoin May Have Been in Bear Territory for Two Months Already
Wake-up call for the bulls. Fresh analysis from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests Bitcoin's party might have ended two months ago—and the hangover is just setting in.
Reading the On-Chain Tea Leaves
The firm's metrics aren't looking at price charts alone. They're digging into blockchain data—exchange flows, miner behavior, and long-term holder activity—to gauge real market sentiment. The verdict? Key indicators have been flashing warning signs since late 2025, hinting at a structural shift from accumulation to distribution.
Why This Time Feels Different
It's not just a dip. The data implies this could be a classic bear market phase, characterized by waning investor enthusiasm and persistent selling pressure from key cohorts. Think of it as the market's immune system kicking in after the speculative fever breaks—painful, but necessary.
The Institutional Conundrum
Here's the twist for the suits on Wall Street: their much-hyped 'adoption' and ETF inflows might have been buying the top for retail. A classic case of smart money selling while the narrative machine keeps churning out bullish soundbites—because why let a pesky bear market interrupt a good fee-generating story?
Bottom line: If CryptoQuant's read is right, the market isn't on the verge of a downturn. It's already in one. The only question left is how deep the rabbit hole goes.
Bitcoin Falling Below One-Year Moving Average Signals Trend Shift
For Moreno, the most decisive signal is a familiar long-term technical marker: bitcoin falling below its one-year moving average.
That indicator, which reflects the average price over the past 12 months, is often used to distinguish between broader uptrends and downtrends.
“For me, the last confirmation is the price going below its one-year moving average,” Moreno said, adding that this MOVE typically marks a transition into bearish conditions.
Bitcoin’s recent price action appears to support that view.
After starting 2025 NEAR $93,000, the asset rallied to a peak of around $126,080 in October before reversing course and ending the year below its opening level, according to data from CoinGecko. As of Friday, Bitcoin was trading near $88,500.
If the current phase is indeed a bear market, it challenges widely held expectations that 2026 WOULD mark another strong growth year for Bitcoin.
Instead, Moreno argues the market may still be in the process of finding a bottom.
Based on Bitcoin’s realized price, the average price at which current holders acquired their coins, Moreno estimates a potential bear market low in the $56,000 to $60,000 range over the next year.
Historically, he said, Bitcoin prices tend to drift back toward this realized level during prolonged downturns, after deviating sharply higher in bull markets.
Bitcoin’s Potential 55% Drawdown Seen as Mild by Historical Standards
A decline to that range would represent a drawdown of roughly 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high. While significant, Moreno views that figure as relatively mild by historical standards.
Previous bear markets have seen losses of 70% to 80% from peak levels, often accompanied by cascading failures across the crypto industry.
This cycle, however, looks structurally different. Moreno noted the absence of major systemic collapses so far, unlike 2022, when the implosions of Terra, Celsius, and FTX triggered widespread panic and forced selling.
He also pointed to the growing role of institutional participants, including ETFs and long-term allocators, who tend to buy steadily and are less likely to exit positions during downturns.
That shift, combined with a deeper pool of market participants and more established infrastructure, could help cushion the downside even if bearish conditions persist.
“In previous bear markets, the demand was basically, you know contracting,” Moreno said. “I would say that structurally, we now have more like institutional or ETFs that don’t sell, and also there’s some buying there.”
