Russia’s September Oil Output Hits 9.368 Million Barrels Daily - Still 47,000 Barrels Short of OPEC+ Target

Moscow's production machine keeps churning but can't quite hit the mark

Russia pumped 9.368 million barrels per day in September - a solid increase that still leaves them playing catch-up with their OPEC+ commitments. The 47,000-barrel daily shortfall represents another month of promised production that never materialized.

The Gap That Won't Close

While the numbers show progress, the persistent miss reveals the challenges facing one of the world's largest oil producers. Meeting targets looks good on paper, but delivering requires more than just ambition.

Another month, another promise not quite kept - at least OPEC+ meetings never lack for discussion topics.

Ukraine strikes slash refinery use while ports choke on raw barrels

Refineries inside Russia have been under fire, literally. Waves of drone attacks from Ukraine have cut into the country’s crude processing capacity, forcing exporters to offload more unrefined oil than usual. That’s led to a glut of outbound barrels piling up in major ports, with reports that some shipping terminals are hitting capacity limits.

The Kremlin’s response? Silence. Since the start of Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has classified its oil output data. That’s left oil watchers piecing together trends from ship-tracking data and refinery estimates, since there’s no transparent way to verify the numbers. Still, Russia insists everything’s under control.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Interfax that September’s output was roughly in line with Russia’s OPEC+ promise. “Just as we can’t reduce production quickly, we are ramping it up gradually. We will fulfill our quota,” Alexander said. But the numbers don’t lie: September still came in under target, and August did too.

Russia’s problem isn’t just drones and data blackouts. It’s got a long record of being late on OPEC+ deals, and this year’s been no different. The alliance has revised its compensation cut calendar four times in 2025 alone, with the latest version demanding Russia cut its original 9.449 million barrels per day target by 34,000 barrels, bringing the final September limit down to 9.415 million barrels per day. Bloomberg noted Russia’s actual output was closer to the earlier version of the plan, which had asked for 9.364 million barrels per day.

U.S. demand jumps while OPEC+ adjusts November targets

Outside Russia, markets kept an eye on American consumption. On Wednesday, Brent crude ROSE $0.80 to $66.25, while WTI climbed $0.82 to $62.55.

Traders focused less on the unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories and more on fresh data from the Energy Information Administration, which showed that weekly petroleum product demand hit 21.990 million barrels per day, the highest since December 2022.

EIA reported a stockpile build of 3.7 million barrels for the week ending October 3, topping forecasts of 1.9 million barrels from a Reuters poll and 2.8 million barrels from the API. That didn’t rattle markets much, as demand stayed strong. “The demand numbers are pretty strong and that should keep the market supported,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ met Sunday and agreed to a modest bump in output for November, setting the new target 137,000 barrels per day higher than before. That number came in lower than expected, as the group tries to avoid a supply glut. But with Russia already behind, the real test will be who actually delivers those barrels — and who doesn’t.

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